气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate ambition, background scenario or the model? Attribution of the variance of energy-related indicators in global scenarios

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DOI	10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100126
	Climate ambition, background scenario or the model? Attribution of the variance of energy-related indicators in global scenarios
	Al Khourdajie, Alaa; Skea, Jim; Green, Richard
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2666-2787
起始页码	5
卷号	5
英文摘要	We attribute variations in key energy sector indicators across global climate mitigation scenarios to climate ambition, assumptions in background socioeconomic scenarios, differences between models and an unattributed portion that depends on the interaction between these. The scenarios assessed have been generated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) as part of a model intercomparison project exploring the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) used by the climate science community. Climate ambition plays the most significant role in explaining many energy-related indicators, particularly those relevant to overall energy supply, the use of fossil fuels, final energy carriers and emissions. The role of socioeconomic background scenarios is more prominent for indicators influenced by population and GDP growth, such as those relating to final energy demand and nuclear energy. Variations across some indicators, including hydro, solar and wind generation, are largely attributable to inter-model differences. Our Shapley-Owen decomposition gives an unexplained residual not due to the average effects of the other factors, highlighting some indicators (such as the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for fossil fuels, or adopting hydrogen as an energy carrier) with outlier results for particular ambition-scenariomodel combinations. This suggests guidance to policymakers on these indicators is the least robust.
英文关键词	Energy transition; Climate change mitigation; Integrated assessment models; Shapley-Owen decomposition
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels
WOS类目	Energy & Fuels
WOS记录号	WOS:001185775700001
来源期刊	ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296129
作者单位	Imperial College London; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Imperial College London
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Al Khourdajie, Alaa,Skea, Jim,Green, Richard. Climate ambition, background scenario or the model? Attribution of the variance of energy-related indicators in global scenarios[J],2024,5.
APA	Al Khourdajie, Alaa,Skea, Jim,&Green, Richard.(2024).Climate ambition, background scenario or the model? Attribution of the variance of energy-related indicators in global scenarios.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE,5.
MLA	Al Khourdajie, Alaa,et al."Climate ambition, background scenario or the model? Attribution of the variance of energy-related indicators in global scenarios".ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 5(2024).