气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic

CCPortal

DOI	10.1139/AS-2023-0024
	Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic
	Allibert, Agathe; Viard, Francois; Sauve, Caroline C.; Simon, Audrey; Rees, Erin E.; Leighton, Patrick A.
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2368-7460
英文摘要	In the Arctic, rabies is endemic in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), posing a significant and ongoing health risk for people and domestic animals. The mechanisms by which rabies is maintained within the low-density fox populations in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based stochastic epidemiological model and performed an uncertainty analysis to better understand Arctic fox rabies dynamics. Rabies persisted in 25.68% of model simulations, with several variables having significant impact on rabies persistence: probability of rabies transmission, spatial and temporal distribution food resources, mean litter size and variability of rabies incubation periods. Where rabies is endemic, we identified 5 key parameters for rabies dynamics: spatiotemporal resource distribution, probability of birth for adult females, mean and standard deviation of litter size, and incubation period of rabies. Our study demonstrates that Arctic rabies can persist in its primary host under conditions consistent with existing empirical data in the literature and showed the important role played by the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. Finally, our results suggest that the ecological impacts of rapid climate warming could decrease the overall persistence of rabies in the Arctic and the associated health risk in Arctic communities.
英文关键词	Vulpes lagopus; public health; epidemiology; spatially explicit individualbased model; resources availability
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Ecology ; Environmental Sciences ; Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001214419600001
来源期刊	ARCTIC SCIENCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/296030
作者单位	Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal; Public Health Agency of Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Allibert, Agathe,Viard, Francois,Sauve, Caroline C.,et al. Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic[J],2024.
APA	Allibert, Agathe,Viard, Francois,Sauve, Caroline C.,Simon, Audrey,Rees, Erin E.,&Leighton, Patrick A..(2024).Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic.ARCTIC SCIENCE.
MLA	Allibert, Agathe,et al."Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic".ARCTIC SCIENCE (2024).