气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Flood projections for selected Costa Rican main basins using CMIP6 climate models downscaled output in the HBV hydrological model for scenario SSP5-8.5

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DOI	10.3178/hrl.18.35
	Flood projections for selected Costa Rican main basins using CMIP6 climate models downscaled output in the HBV hydrological model for scenario SSP5-8.5
	Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Alfaro, Eric J.; Quesada-Roman, Adolfo
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1882-3416
起始页码	18
结束页码	1
卷号	18 期号:1
英文摘要	Estimates from 3 statistically downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) from version 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, namely the EC Earth3, GFDL ESM4 and MPI ESM1 2 HR are used in the HBV hydrological model to estimate design streamflow projections with 20, 50, and 100 -year return periods for the selected main basins of Costa Rica. The changes in these streamflows were computed between the baseline period (1985-2015) and the mid-century projection (2035-2065) for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The novelty resides in being the first study that explores the magnitude of climate changes in design flows of Costa Rica, a tropical country. Although, calibration and validation statistics are generally good for most of the basins, only around one quarter of the simulations reproduce the observed distribution of the 3-day annual maximum flows. Results show that the MPI model presents lower sensitivity with changes of different sign depending on the basin studied and the other two models suggest only significant increases in the design flow in most of the basins. Results of the model's ensemble suggests a great concern, as there is a general increase in the design flows, and the magnitudes of the changes are large, especially in the Pacific slope.
英文关键词	streamflow; model; HBV; floods; general circulation model; climate change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001188288600001
来源期刊	HYDROLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/295918
作者单位	Universidad Costa Rica; Universidad Costa Rica; Universidad Costa Rica; Universidad Costa Rica; Universidad Costa Rica; Universidad Costa Rica
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hidalgo, Hugo G.,Alfaro, Eric J.,Quesada-Roman, Adolfo. Flood projections for selected Costa Rican main basins using CMIP6 climate models downscaled output in the HBV hydrological model for scenario SSP5-8.5[J],2024,18(1).
APA	Hidalgo, Hugo G.,Alfaro, Eric J.,&Quesada-Roman, Adolfo.(2024).Flood projections for selected Costa Rican main basins using CMIP6 climate models downscaled output in the HBV hydrological model for scenario SSP5-8.5.HYDROLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,18(1).
MLA	Hidalgo, Hugo G.,et al."Flood projections for selected Costa Rican main basins using CMIP6 climate models downscaled output in the HBV hydrological model for scenario SSP5-8.5".HYDROLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 18.1(2024).