气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia

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DOI	10.3390/cli12040049
	Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia
	Speer, Milton; Hartigan, Joshua; Leslie, Lance M.
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2225-1154
起始页码	12
结束页码	4
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	Flash droughts (FDs) are natural disasters that strike suddenly and intensify quickly. They occur almost anywhere, anytime of the year, and can have severe socio-economic, health and environmental impacts. This study focuses on a recent FD that began in the cool season of the Upper Hunter region of Eastern Australia, an important energy and agricultural local and global exporter that is both flood- and drought-prone. Here, the authors investigate the FD that started abruptly in May 2023 and extended to October 2023. The FD followed floods in November 2021 and much above-average May-October 2022 rainfall. Eight machine learning (ML) regression techniques were applied to the 60 May-October periods from 1963-2022, using a rolling windows attribution search from 45 possible climate drivers, both individually and in combination. The six most prominent climate drivers, and likely predictors, provide an understanding of the major contributors to the FD. Next, the 1963-2022 data were divided into two shorter timespans, 1963-1992 and 1993-2022, generally accepted as representing the early and accelerated global warming periods, respectively. The key attributes were markedly different for the two timespans. These differences are readily explained by the impacts of global warming on hemispheric and synoptic-scale atmospheric circulations.
英文关键词	artificial intelligence methods; climate change; AI climate detection/attribution; AI in extreme-event studies; climate impacts addressed by AI methods
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001210398600001
来源期刊	CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/295889
作者单位	University of Technology Sydney
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Speer, Milton,Hartigan, Joshua,Leslie, Lance M.. Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia[J],2024,12(4).
APA	Speer, Milton,Hartigan, Joshua,&Leslie, Lance M..(2024).Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia.CLIMATE,12(4).
MLA	Speer, Milton,et al."Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia".CLIMATE 12.4(2024).