气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluations of extreme wave heights around Hainan Island and their uncertainty induced by decadal variations of input variables

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DOI	10.1016/j.oceaneng.2024.116705
	Evaluations of extreme wave heights around Hainan Island and their uncertainty induced by decadal variations of input variables
	Li, Junmin; Li, Shaotian; Li, Yineng; Chen, Wuyang; Li, Bo; Liu, Junliang; Shi, Ping
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0029-8018
EISSN	1873-5258
起始页码	294
卷号	294
英文摘要	Evaluation of extreme significant wave height (SWH) is essential for marine economy and engineering. However, insufficient sampling timespans may bring considerable uncertainty in such evaluations since SWHs can exhibit significant interdecadal variations under global climate change scenarios. Especially in areas like the South China Sea (SCS), where strong waves are closely related to typhoon events, the frequency of typhoons changed decadally. This study takes the area around Hainan Island in the northwestern SCS as an example, builds a fineresolution numerical model, and applies multiple (Gumbel, Weibull, and Generalized Pareto) distribution models to systematically analyze the uncertainty in the extreme SWH evaluation caused by the decadal variations of input variables. The results show that inputting 1980-2000 and 2001-2021 data subsets can cause considerable differences in the calculated extreme SWHs. It indicates that either timespan subset is sufficient to determine a credible result. If the interdecadal variation of typhoon frequency is included by the Poisson distribution or the long-term trend of SWHs is extrapolated by the non-stationary parameters, the differences will become even more remarkable. This study emphasizes the importance of a sufficient sampling timespan and suitable models to avoid uncertainty in evaluating the extreme SWHs.
英文关键词	Extreme value analysis; Significant wave height; Interdecadal variation; Uncertainty analysis; Typhoon
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Oceanography
WOS类目	Engineering, Marine ; Engineering, Civil ; Engineering, Ocean ; Oceanography
WOS记录号	WOS:001182960200001
来源期刊	OCEAN ENGINEERING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/295750
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Junmin,Li, Shaotian,Li, Yineng,et al. Evaluations of extreme wave heights around Hainan Island and their uncertainty induced by decadal variations of input variables[J],2024,294.
APA	Li, Junmin.,Li, Shaotian.,Li, Yineng.,Chen, Wuyang.,Li, Bo.,...&Shi, Ping.(2024).Evaluations of extreme wave heights around Hainan Island and their uncertainty induced by decadal variations of input variables.OCEAN ENGINEERING,294.
MLA	Li, Junmin,et al."Evaluations of extreme wave heights around Hainan Island and their uncertainty induced by decadal variations of input variables".OCEAN ENGINEERING 294(2024).