气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Nonstationarity in Extreme Precipitation Return Values along the US Gulf and Southeastern Coasts

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DOI	10.1175/JHM-D-22-0157.1
	Nonstationarity in Extreme Precipitation Return Values along the US Gulf and Southeastern Coasts
	Jorgensen, Savannah K.; Nielsen-Gammon, John W.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1525-755X
EISSN	1525-7541
起始页码	25
结束页码	5
卷号	25 期号:5
英文摘要	This study estimates extreme rainfall trends across the Gulf Coast and southeastern coast of the United States while applying methods for extending the temporal record and aggregating across spatial trend variations. Nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models are applied to historical annual daily maximum precipitation data (1890 - 2019) while using CMIP5 global mean surface temperature (GMST) as the covariate. County composites and multicounty regions are used for local data record extension and pooling. Unlike most previous studies, return periods as long as 100 years are analyzed. The local trend estimates themselves are found to be too noisy to be reliable as estimates of climate -driven trends. However, application of a Gaussian process model to the spatial distribution of observed trends yields overall trend detection at the 95% signi fi cance level. The overall historical increase due to nonstationarity across the study region, with associated 95% con fi dence intervals, is 9% (3%, 15%) for the 2-yr return period and 16% (4%, 26%) for the 100-yr return period. A trend is also detectable in the Gulf Coast subregion, but not in the smaller southeast subregion. Recent weather events and nonstationarity have caused the of fi cial return value estimates for parts of North and South Carolina to be much lower than the return values estimated here.
英文关键词	Climate change; Hydrometeorology; Statistics; Trends
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001230271600003
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/295525
作者单位	Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jorgensen, Savannah K.,Nielsen-Gammon, John W.. Nonstationarity in Extreme Precipitation Return Values along the US Gulf and Southeastern Coasts[J],2024,25(5).
APA	Jorgensen, Savannah K.,&Nielsen-Gammon, John W..(2024).Nonstationarity in Extreme Precipitation Return Values along the US Gulf and Southeastern Coasts.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,25(5).
MLA	Jorgensen, Savannah K.,et al."Nonstationarity in Extreme Precipitation Return Values along the US Gulf and Southeastern Coasts".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 25.5(2024).