气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Integrating Hydrological and Machine Learning Models for Enhanced Streamflow Forecasting via Bayesian Model Averaging in a Hydro-Dominant Power System

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DOI	10.3390/w16040586
	Integrating Hydrological and Machine Learning Models for Enhanced Streamflow Forecasting via Bayesian Model Averaging in a Hydro-Dominant Power System
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4441
起始页码	16
结束页码	4
卷号	16 期号:4
英文摘要	Streamflow forecasting plays a crucial role in the operational planning of hydro-dominant power systems, providing valuable insights into future water inflows to reservoirs and hydropower plants. It relies on complex mathematical models, which, despite their sophistication, face various uncertainties affecting their performance. These uncertainties can significantly influence both short-term and long-term operational planning in hydropower systems. To mitigate these effects, this study introduces a novel Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework to improve the accuracy of streamflow forecasts in real hydro-dominant power systems. Designed to serve as an operational tool, the proposed framework incorporates predictive uncertainty into the forecasting process, enhancing the robustness and reliability of predictions. BMA statistically combines multiple models based on their posterior probability distributions, producing forecasts from the weighted averages of predictions. This approach updates weights periodically using recent historical data of forecasted and measured streamflows. Tested on inflows to 139 reservoirs and hydropower plants in Brazil, the proposed BMA framework proved to be more skillful than individual models, showing improvements in forecasting accuracy, especially in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. This method offers a more reliable tool for streamflow prediction, enhancing decision making in hydropower system operations.
英文关键词	hydro-dominant power systems; multi-model ensemble; rainfall-runoff models; Bayesian model averaging; streamflow forecasting
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001172592100001
来源期刊	WATER
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/295263
作者单位	Universidade Federal de Itajuba; Duke University; Universidade Federal de Itajuba; North Carolina State University; North Carolina State University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	. Integrating Hydrological and Machine Learning Models for Enhanced Streamflow Forecasting via Bayesian Model Averaging in a Hydro-Dominant Power System[J],2024,16(4).
APA	(2024).Integrating Hydrological and Machine Learning Models for Enhanced Streamflow Forecasting via Bayesian Model Averaging in a Hydro-Dominant Power System.WATER,16(4).
MLA	"Integrating Hydrological and Machine Learning Models for Enhanced Streamflow Forecasting via Bayesian Model Averaging in a Hydro-Dominant Power System".WATER 16.4(2024).

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