气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploring the correlation between temperature and crime: A case-crossover study of eight cities in America

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.jnlssr.2023.11.001
	Exploring the correlation between temperature and crime: A case-crossover study of eight cities in America
	Hu, Jinming; Hu, Xiaofeng; Han, Xin'ge; Lin, Yan; Wu, Huanggang; Shen, Bing
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2096-7527
EISSN	2666-4496
起始页码	5
结束页码	1
卷号	5 期号:1
英文摘要	Recent years have seen increasing academic interest in exploring the correlation between temperature and crime. However, it is uncertain whether similar long-term trends or seasonality (rather than causal effect) of temperature and crime is the major reason for the observed correlation between them. To explore whether there is still a correlation between temperature and crime when long-term trends and seasonal cycles are filtered out, we use the Kalman filter to decompose the time series of temperature and crimes, and then the fast Fourier transform is used to calculate the exact circle of their seasonality separately. Based on that, the box-plot method and linear regression are used to explore the correlation between temperature residuals and crime residuals. The results show that more than half of the crime types have similar seasonal cycles (approximately 1 year) to that of temperature. Moreover, the daily residual analyses show that temperature residuals have a positive correlation with assault and robbery residuals in all cities, whose average slopes are more than 0.1. The other four types of crimes vary greatly from case to case. The temperature residuals show a weak correlation with the residuals of some crime types.
英文关键词	Time series decomposition; Crime; Temperature; Kalman filter; Fast fourier transform
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS类目	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS记录号	WOS:001150339700001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND RESILIENCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/294072
作者单位	People's Public Security University of China; People's Public Security University of China; China University of Mining & Technology; People's Public Security University of China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hu, Jinming,Hu, Xiaofeng,Han, Xin'ge,et al. Exploring the correlation between temperature and crime: A case-crossover study of eight cities in America[J],2024,5(1).
APA	Hu, Jinming,Hu, Xiaofeng,Han, Xin'ge,Lin, Yan,Wu, Huanggang,&Shen, Bing.(2024).Exploring the correlation between temperature and crime: A case-crossover study of eight cities in America.JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND RESILIENCE,5(1).
MLA	Hu, Jinming,et al."Exploring the correlation between temperature and crime: A case-crossover study of eight cities in America".JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND RESILIENCE 5.1(2024).