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DOI	10.1063/5.0180870
	The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system under non-periodic forcing: A climate change example
	Virissimo, F. de Melo; Stainforth, D. A.; Brocker, J.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1054-1500
EISSN	1089-7682
起始页码	34
结束页码	1
卷号	34 期号:1
英文摘要	In this article, we approach the problem of measuring and interpreting the mid-term climate of a non-autonomous chaotic dynamical system in the context of climate modeling. To do so, we use a low-dimensional, conceptual model for the Earth system with different timescales of variability and subjected to non-periodic external forcing. We introduce the concepts of an evolution set and its distribution, which are dependent on the starting state of the system, and explore their links to different types of initial condition uncertainty and the rate of external forcing. We define the convergence time as the time that it takes for the evolution distribution of one of the dependent variables to lose memory of its initial condition. We suspect a connection between convergence times and the classical concept of mixing times, but the precise nature of this connection needs to be explored. These results have implications for the design of influential climate and Earth system model ensembles and raise a number of issues of mathematical interest.(c) 2024 Author(s). All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Mathematics ; Physics
WOS类目	Mathematics, Applied ; Physics, Mathematical
WOS记录号	WOS:001147121800003
来源期刊	CHAOS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293972
作者单位	University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Reading; University of Warwick
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Virissimo, F. de Melo,Stainforth, D. A.,Brocker, J.. The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system under non-periodic forcing: A climate change example[J],2024,34(1).
APA	Virissimo, F. de Melo,Stainforth, D. A.,&Brocker, J..(2024).The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system under non-periodic forcing: A climate change example.CHAOS,34(1).
MLA	Virissimo, F. de Melo,et al."The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system under non-periodic forcing: A climate change example".CHAOS 34.1(2024).