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| DOI | 10.1007/s00477-024-02664-9 |
| Assessment of future changes in drought characteristics through stochastic downscaling and CMIP6 over South Korea | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 1436-3240 |
| EISSN | 1436-3259 |
| 起始页码 | 38 |
| 结束页码 | 5 |
| 卷号 | 38期号:5 |
| 英文摘要 | Assessments of future droughts are essential tools due to the potential for serious damage to the environment, economy, and society, particularly under climate change. This study proposes a framework for assessing drought characteristics at different scales, periods, and emission scenarios modeled by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The four drought characteristics were determined by applying the Run theory to a standardized precipitation index time series, and the severe drought areas were detected by the Jenks Natural Breaks and Kriging methods. The study produced four main findings. (1) A stochastic weather generator, AWE-GEN, captures the variability of precipitation with inter- and intra-annual stochastic properties, and presents naturally occurring variability as an ensemble. (2) According to the ensemble average of drought characteristics, future droughts are projected to become less frequent with similar durations and intensity due to future rise in precipitation. However, the ensemble (stochastic or natural) and spatial variabilities are expected to increase, making drought management difficult (e.g., future decrease of 18% in DEmax\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${DE}_{max}$$\end{document} for END585). (3) Different temporal scales can affect the detection and characterization of drought events. Smaller temporal scales identify mild drought events of short duration and low severity, while larger scales merge and extend drought events, resulting in more prolonged and severe droughts. (4) Severe drought areas can expand compared with a control period for drought duration and severity, but may decrease for drought interval and frequency especially for the END period (e.g., 24% and 17% increase for DDmax\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${DD}_{max}$$\end{document} and DSmax\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\left|DS\right|}_{max}$$\end{document}, and 85% and 78% decrease for DImean\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${DI}_{mean}$$\end{document} and DEmax\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${DE}_{max}$$\end{document} for SPI3 and END585). The framework proposed in this study is expected to provide important information for the building of strategies required to adapt to and mitigate the potential impacts of drought in the future. |
| 英文关键词 | Future drought assessment; Stochastic weather generator; CMIP6; Run theory; Drought characteristics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001159756700002 |
| 来源期刊 | STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293890 |
| 作者单位 | University of Ulsan; Vietnam National University Hanoi; Ho Chi Minh City Open University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Assessment of future changes in drought characteristics through stochastic downscaling and CMIP6 over South Korea[J],2024,38(5). |
| APA | (2024).Assessment of future changes in drought characteristics through stochastic downscaling and CMIP6 over South Korea.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,38(5). |
| MLA | "Assessment of future changes in drought characteristics through stochastic downscaling and CMIP6 over South Korea".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 38.5(2024). |
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