气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Coupling state-of-the-art modelling tools for better informed Red List assessments of marine fishes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/1365-2664.14601
	Coupling state-of-the-art modelling tools for better informed Red List assessments of marine fishes
	Gruss, Arnaud; Winker, Henning; Thorson, James T.; Walker, Nicola D.; Maureaud, Aurore; Pacoureau, Nathan
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0021-8901
EISSN	1365-2664
起始页码	61
结束页码	4
卷号	61 期号:4
英文摘要	In the face of biodiversity loss worldwide, it is paramount to quantify species' extinction risk to guide conservation efforts. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN)'s Red List is considered the global standard for evaluating extinction risks. IUCN criteria also inform national extinction risk assessments. Bayesian models, including the state-of-the-art JARA ('Just Another Red List Assessment') tool, deliver probabilistic statements about species falling into extinction risk categories, thereby enabling characterisation and communication of uncertainty in extinction risk assessments. We coupled the state-of-the-art VAST ('Vector Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal') modelling tool and JARA, for better informed Red List assessments of marine fishes. In this framework, VAST is fitted to scientific survey catch rate data to provide indices to JARA whose uncertainty is propagated to JARA outcomes suggesting extinction risk categories (under the population reduction criterion). In addition, VAST delivers a valuable habitat assessment to better understand what may be driving extinction risk in the study region. Here, we demonstrate the coupled VAST-JARA modelling framework by applying it to five contrasting North Sea species, with or without a quantitative stock assessment and with different conservation statuses according to the latest global Red List assessments. The North Sea application coupled with previous assessments and studies suggest that, among the three elasmobranchs, starry ray is in most need of urgent research (and conservation actions where appropriate), followed by spurdog, while lesser-spotted dogfish is increasing in biomass. Moreover, both the VAST-JARA modelling framework and previous research indicate that, while European plaice is not of conservation concern, cod has likely met the IUCN criteria for being listed as Endangered recently. Synthesis and applications. The predictions of the VAST-JARA modelling framework for North Sea species, including JARA output and VAST habitat assessment, constitute valuable supporting information to make interpretations based on Red List guidelines, which will help decision-makers in their next North Sea Red List assessment. We foresee applications of the modelling framework to assist Red List assessments of numerous marine fishes worldwide. Our modelling framework has many potential advantageous uses, including informing resource management about climate change impacts on species' extinction risks. The predictions of the VAST-JARA modelling framework for North Sea species, including JARA output and VAST habitat assessment, constitute valuable supporting information to make interpretations based on Red List guidelines, which will help decision-makers in their next North Sea Red List assessment. We foresee applications of the modelling framework to assist Red List assessments of numerous marine fishes worldwide. Our modelling framework has many potential advantageous uses, including informing resource management about climate change impacts on species' extinction risks.image
英文关键词	fishes; habitat assessment; JARA; Red List assessments; state-space models; survey data; VAST
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001161619100001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293867
作者单位	University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) - New Zealand; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Centre for Environment Fisheries & Aquaculture Science; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Simon Fraser University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gruss, Arnaud,Winker, Henning,Thorson, James T.,et al. Coupling state-of-the-art modelling tools for better informed Red List assessments of marine fishes[J],2024,61(4).
APA	Gruss, Arnaud,Winker, Henning,Thorson, James T.,Walker, Nicola D.,Maureaud, Aurore,&Pacoureau, Nathan.(2024).Coupling state-of-the-art modelling tools for better informed Red List assessments of marine fishes.JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY,61(4).
MLA	Gruss, Arnaud,et al."Coupling state-of-the-art modelling tools for better informed Red List assessments of marine fishes".JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY 61.4(2024).