气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Flash floods in Mediterranean catchments: a meta-model decision support system based on Bayesian networks

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DOI	10.1007/s10651-023-00587-2
	Flash floods in Mediterranean catchments: a meta-model decision support system based on Bayesian networks
	Ropero, Rosa F.; Flores, M. Julia; Rumi, Rafael
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1352-8505
EISSN	1573-3009
起始页码	31
结束页码	1
卷号	31 期号:1
英文摘要	Natural disasters, especially those related to water-like storms and floods-have increased over the last decades both in number and intensity. Under the current Climate Change framework, several reports predict an increase in the intensity and duration of these extreme climatic events, where the Mediterranean area would be one of the most affected. This paper develops a decision support system based on Bayesian inference able to predict a flood alert in Andalusian Mediterranean catchments. The key point is that, using simple weather forecasts and live measurements of river level, we can get a flood-alert several hours before it happens. A set of models based on Bayesian networks was learnt for each of the catchments included in the study area, and joined together into a more complex model based on a rule system. This final meta-model was validated using data from both non-extreme and extreme storm events. Results show that the methodology proposed provides an accurate forecast of the flood situation of the greatest catchment areas of Andalusia.
英文关键词	Bayesian networks; Decision support system; Flood risk; Regression model; Rule-based meta-model; Unsupervised classification
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Statistics & Probability
WOS记录号	WOS:001138218100001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293579
作者单位	Universidad de Almeria; Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ropero, Rosa F.,Flores, M. Julia,Rumi, Rafael. Flash floods in Mediterranean catchments: a meta-model decision support system based on Bayesian networks[J],2024,31(1).
APA	Ropero, Rosa F.,Flores, M. Julia,&Rumi, Rafael.(2024).Flash floods in Mediterranean catchments: a meta-model decision support system based on Bayesian networks.ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS,31(1).
MLA	Ropero, Rosa F.,et al."Flash floods in Mediterranean catchments: a meta-model decision support system based on Bayesian networks".ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS 31.1(2024).