气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes in compound hot-dry events depend on the dry indicator considered

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s43247-024-01352-4
	Projected changes in compound hot-dry events depend on the dry indicator considered
	Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Termonia, Piet; Tabari, Hossein
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2662-4435
起始页码	5
结束页码	1
卷号	5 期号:1
英文摘要	The intensification of compound hot-dry events due to climate change is a pressing concern, underscoring the need for precise analysis. However, the impact of different dry indicators on projections of these events has not been quantitatively evaluated, nor has its importance been compared with other sources of uncertainty. Here we examine the sensitivity of projected changes in compound hot-dry events to different dry indicators. We use data from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to characterize global dry conditions based on precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, and a multivariate index combining these variables through trivariate copulas. Our findings reveal large differences in projected changes in the likelihood of compound hot-dry events across different dry indicators. While model uncertainty remains the primary source of uncertainty for compound hot-dry event projections, the uncertainty associated with dry indicators is also substantial, surpassing scenario uncertainty in specific regions. Uncertainties associated with the choice of dry indicators impact future projections of compound hot-dry extremes and are greater than scenario uncertainty in some regions, according to an analysis of different indices from multi-model ensemble simulations.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001207738200003
来源期刊	COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293564
作者单位	Ghent University; Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium; University of Antwerp
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa,Termonia, Piet,Tabari, Hossein. Projected changes in compound hot-dry events depend on the dry indicator considered[J],2024,5(1).
APA	Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa,Termonia, Piet,&Tabari, Hossein.(2024).Projected changes in compound hot-dry events depend on the dry indicator considered.COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,5(1).
MLA	Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa,et al."Projected changes in compound hot-dry events depend on the dry indicator considered".COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 5.1(2024).