气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2302480120
	Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models
	Simpson, Isla R.; McKinnon, Karen A.; Kennedy, Daniel; Lawrence, David M.; Lehner, Flavio; Seager, Richard
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0027-8424
EISSN	1091-6490
起始页码	121
结束页码	1
卷号	121 期号:1
英文摘要	Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas- driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. It indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward.
英文关键词	climate change; modeling; humidity; hydroclimate
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001144694000004
来源期刊	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293139
作者单位	National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Cornell University; Columbia University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Simpson, Isla R.,McKinnon, Karen A.,Kennedy, Daniel,et al. Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models[J],2024,121(1).
APA	Simpson, Isla R.,McKinnon, Karen A.,Kennedy, Daniel,Lawrence, David M.,Lehner, Flavio,&Seager, Richard.(2024).Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,121(1).
MLA	Simpson, Isla R.,et al."Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 121.1(2024).