气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of railway incidents on train delays: A case of the Swedish Railway Network

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.jrtpm.2024.100445
	The impact of railway incidents on train delays: A case of the Swedish Railway Network
	Mukunzi, Grace; Palmqvist, Carl-William
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2210-9706
EISSN	2210-9714
起始页码	30
卷号	30
英文摘要	A foreseeable challenge with a substantial increase in railway mode share will be how to uphold punctuality. Higher volumes of train traffic will result in timetables that are more sensitive to disruptions; whose severity and frequency is also expected to increase in light of greater asset utilization and climate change. This calls for a definitive understanding of the relationship between incidents and train delays as a prerequisite to developing robust timetables and disruption management strategies. In this paper we propose a novel framework for quantifying the impact of railway incidents on train delays. Using a case of the Swedish Railway Network, we compare the impact of different incidents on train delays. The impact of delay is defined as a factor of the incident rate, exposure rate, delay rate and historical average delay minutes per incident. A logistic model that estimates the probability of delay for any train, in the event of a failure, is also developed. Snow on track was established as most critical, resulting in the highest normalized delay minutes per train and the largest increase in the odds of delay for individual trains. The proposed framework & approach can be applied to other networks.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Transportation
WOS类目	Transportation
WOS记录号	WOS:001218510000001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF RAIL TRANSPORT PLANNING & MANAGEMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293097
作者单位	Lund University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mukunzi, Grace,Palmqvist, Carl-William. The impact of railway incidents on train delays: A case of the Swedish Railway Network[J],2024,30.
APA	Mukunzi, Grace,&Palmqvist, Carl-William.(2024).The impact of railway incidents on train delays: A case of the Swedish Railway Network.JOURNAL OF RAIL TRANSPORT PLANNING & MANAGEMENT,30.
MLA	Mukunzi, Grace,et al."The impact of railway incidents on train delays: A case of the Swedish Railway Network".JOURNAL OF RAIL TRANSPORT PLANNING & MANAGEMENT 30(2024).