气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Convection-Permitting Future Climate Simulations for Bulgaria under the RCP8.5 Scenario

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DOI	10.3390/atmos15010091
	Convection-Permitting Future Climate Simulations for Bulgaria under the RCP8.5 Scenario
	Valcheva, Rilka; Popov, Ivan; Gerganov, Nikola
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4433
起始页码	15
结束页码	1
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	In recent decades, climate change has become a critical global issue with far-reaching consequences for regional climates and ecosystems. While regional climate models provide valuable information, there is a growing need for high-resolution simulations to assess local impacts. This paper addresses this gap by presenting the first simulation of a 3 km convection-permitting (CP) scenario simulation for Bulgaria. The main aim of this study is to assess different precipitation indices and their future changes for Bulgaria under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario following the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study protocol. The simulations are evaluated against high-resolution observations. We downscale Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 Global Climate Model (CMIP5 GCM) data for historical (1995-2004) and future (2089-2098) periods using a regional climate model (RCM) at 15 km grid spacing and parametrized convection. We use these fields as initial and boundary conditions for convection-permitting kilometer-scale simulations. The 15 km grid spacing driving model is used as a reference to assess the added value of the kilometer-scale simulation. Additionally, the 3 km seasonal mean and projected 2 m temperature and the winter snow water equivalent are presented. The results show that the kilometer-scale simulation shows better performance of wet-hour intensity in all seasons, wet-hour frequency in the spring, fall, and winter, and extreme precipitation (99.9th percentile of all precipitation events, p99.9) in the winter and fall. The kilometer-scale simulation improves the projected precipitation distribution and modifies the signal of the precipitation frequency, intensity, and heavy precipitation change over some areas. A positive projected change in the wet-hour intensity is expected in all seasons (13.86% in spring, MAM, 17.48% in summer, JJA, 1.97% in fall, SON, and 17.43% in winter, DJF) and in the heavy precipitation in the spring (13.14%) and winter (31.19%) in the kilometer-scale experiment. The projected increase in mean winter precipitation is accompanied by a significant decrease in mean winter snowfall over lowlands (50-70%). The convection-permitting Regional Climate Model, version 4.7.1 (RegCM4.7.1) suggests an increase in winter snowfall over the highest parts of the country, but a significant increase in the 2 m temperatures there. The results of this study are encouraging and may be of interest to the community of climate scientists and users of climate data for making reliable estimates of the local impacts of future climate change.
英文关键词	convection-permitting modeling; regional climate modeling; climate projections; extreme precipitation; frequency; intensity; kilometer-scale; Bulgaria
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001149322700001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293079
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Valcheva, Rilka,Popov, Ivan,Gerganov, Nikola. Convection-Permitting Future Climate Simulations for Bulgaria under the RCP8.5 Scenario[J],2024,15(1).
APA	Valcheva, Rilka,Popov, Ivan,&Gerganov, Nikola.(2024).Convection-Permitting Future Climate Simulations for Bulgaria under the RCP8.5 Scenario.ATMOSPHERE,15(1).
MLA	Valcheva, Rilka,et al."Convection-Permitting Future Climate Simulations for Bulgaria under the RCP8.5 Scenario".ATMOSPHERE 15.1(2024).