气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ad2893
	Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries
	Berghald, S.; Mayer, S.; Bohlinger, P.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1748-9326
起始页码	19
结束页码	3
卷号	19 期号:3
英文摘要	The increase in heatwave intensity, causing heat stress and crop failures in many regions is a concerning impact of global climate change. In northern Europe, significant interannual variability previously prevented robust assessments of trends in heat extremes. However, with a large-ensemble seasonal hindcasts and archived forecasts dataset covering 1981-2022 multiple realisations of weather patterns can be pooled and assessed. What are recent trends of extreme temperatures? Has the risk for a 100-year heatwave event increased in Northern Europe? We apply the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) approach to assess the credibility of the model ensemble and use non-stationary extreme value analysis to quantify recent trends in extreme 3-day heatwaves in late spring and early summer (May to July). We find significant non-stationarity and positive trends in annual maximum heatwave intensity. We also show that heatwave volatility, i.e. the risk of clearly outstanding heatwaves, is highest in central Scandinavia.
英文关键词	UNSEEN; 3-day heatwave intensity; northern Europe; SEAS5; trends in 100-year return values; heat stress; GEV
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001169794800001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/292801
作者单位	Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research; Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA); Norwegian Meteorological Institute
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Berghald, S.,Mayer, S.,Bohlinger, P.. Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries[J],2024,19(3).
APA	Berghald, S.,Mayer, S.,&Bohlinger, P..(2024).Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(3).
MLA	Berghald, S.,et al."Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.3(2024).