气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change

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DOI	10.1126/sciadv.adj3460
	Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change
	Devanand, Anjana; Falster, Georgina M.; Gillett, Zoe E.; Hobeichi, Sanaa; Holgate, Chiara M.; Jin, Chenhui; Mu, Mengyuan; Parker, Tess; Rifai, Sami W.; Rome, Kathleen S.; Stojanovic, Milica; Vogel, Elisabeth; Abram, Nerilie J.; Abramowitz, Gab; Coats, Sloan; Evans, Jason P.; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Pitman, Andy J.; Power, Scott B.; Rauniyar, Surendra P.; Taschetto, Andrea S.; Ukkola, Anna M.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2375-2548
起始页码	10
结束页码	10
卷号	10 期号:10
英文摘要	We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia's Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around -50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to -13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001187009700013
来源期刊	SCIENCE ADVANCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/292744
作者单位	University of New South Wales Sydney; University of New South Wales Sydney; Australian National University; Australian National University; Monash University; Monash University; University of Adelaide; Universidade de Vigo; University of New South Wales Sydney; University of Melbourne; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of Southern Queensland; Bureau of Meteorology - Australia; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Devanand, Anjana,Falster, Georgina M.,Gillett, Zoe E.,et al. Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change[J],2024,10(10).
APA	Devanand, Anjana.,Falster, Georgina M..,Gillett, Zoe E..,Hobeichi, Sanaa.,Holgate, Chiara M..,...&Ukkola, Anna M..(2024).Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change.SCIENCE ADVANCES,10(10).
MLA	Devanand, Anjana,et al."Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change".SCIENCE ADVANCES 10.10(2024).