气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Data assimilation experiments inform monitoring needs for near-term ecological forecasts in a eutrophic reservoir

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DOI	10.1002/ecs2.4752
	Data assimilation experiments inform monitoring needs for near-term ecological forecasts in a eutrophic reservoir
	Wander, Heather L.; Thomas, R. Quinn; Moore, Tadhg N.; Lofton, Mary E.; Breef-Pilz, Adrienne; Carey, Cayelan C.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2150-8925
起始页码	15
结束页码	2
卷号	15 期号:2
英文摘要	Ecosystems around the globe are experiencing changes in both the magnitude and fluctuations of environmental conditions due to land use and climate change. In response, ecologists are increasingly using near-term, iterative ecological forecasts to predict how ecosystems will change in the future. To date, many near-term, iterative forecasting systems have been developed using high temporal frequency (minute to hourly resolution) data streams for assimilation. However, this approach may be cost-prohibitive or impossible for forecasting ecological variables that lack high-frequency sensors or have high data latency (i.e., a delay before data are available for modeling after collection). To explore the effects of data assimilation frequency on forecast skill, we developed water temperature forecasts for a eutrophic drinking water reservoir and conducted data assimilation experiments by selectively withholding observations to examine the effect of data availability on forecast accuracy. We used in situ sensors, manually collected data, and a calibrated water quality ecosystem model driven by forecasted weather data to generate future water temperature forecasts using Forecasting Lake and Reservoir Ecosystems (FLARE), an open source water quality forecasting system. We tested the effect of daily, weekly, fortnightly, and monthly data assimilation on the skill of 1- to 35-day-ahead water temperature forecasts. We found that forecast skill varied depending on the season, forecast horizon, depth, and data assimilation frequency, but overall forecast performance was high, with a mean 1-day-ahead forecast root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.81 degrees C, mean 7-day RMSE of 1.15 degrees C, and mean 35-day RMSE of 1.94 degrees C. Aggregated across the year, daily data assimilation yielded the most skillful forecasts at 1- to 7-day-ahead horizons, but weekly data assimilation resulted in the most skillful forecasts at 8- to 35-day-ahead horizons. Within a year, forecasts with weekly data assimilation consistently outperformed forecasts with daily data assimilation after the 8-day forecast horizon during mixed spring/autumn periods and 5- to 14-day-ahead horizons during the summer-stratified period, depending on depth. Our results suggest that lower frequency data (i.e., weekly) may be adequate for developing accurate forecasts in some applications, further enabling the development of forecasts broadly across ecosystems and ecological variables without high-frequency sensor data.
英文关键词	data collection frequency; FLARE; high-frequency sensors; initial conditions; observations; uncertainty; water temperature
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001160967700001
来源期刊	ECOSPHERE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/292292
作者单位	Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wander, Heather L.,Thomas, R. Quinn,Moore, Tadhg N.,et al. Data assimilation experiments inform monitoring needs for near-term ecological forecasts in a eutrophic reservoir[J],2024,15(2).
APA	Wander, Heather L.,Thomas, R. Quinn,Moore, Tadhg N.,Lofton, Mary E.,Breef-Pilz, Adrienne,&Carey, Cayelan C..(2024).Data assimilation experiments inform monitoring needs for near-term ecological forecasts in a eutrophic reservoir.ECOSPHERE,15(2).
MLA	Wander, Heather L.,et al."Data assimilation experiments inform monitoring needs for near-term ecological forecasts in a eutrophic reservoir".ECOSPHERE 15.2(2024).