气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-024-00600-w
	Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections
	Fosser, Giorgia; Gaetani, Marco; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Adinolfi, Marianna; Ban, Nikolina; Belusic, Danijel; Caillaud, Cecile; Careto, Joao A. M.; Coppola, Erika; Demory, Marie-Estelle; de Vries, Hylke; Dobler, Andreas; Feldmann, Hendrik; Goergen, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; Pichelli, Emanuela; Schar, Christoph; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Somot, Samuel; Toelle, Merja H.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2397-3722
起始页码	7
结束页码	1
卷号	7 期号:1
英文摘要	Extreme precipitation events lead to dramatic impacts on society and the situation will worsen under climate change. Decision-makers need reliable estimates of future changes as a basis for effective adaptation strategies, but projections at local scale from regional climate models (RCMs) are highly uncertain. Here we exploit the km-scale convection-permitting multi-model (CPM) ensemble, generated within the FPS Convection project, to provide new understanding of the changes in local precipitation extremes and related uncertainties over the greater Alpine region. The CPM ensemble shows a stronger increase in the fractional contribution from extreme events than the driving RCM ensemble during the summer, when convection dominates. We find that the CPM ensemble substantially reduces the model uncertainties and their contribution to the total uncertainties by more than 50%. We conclude that the more realistic representation of local dynamical processes in the CPMs provides more reliable local estimates of change, which are essential for policymakers to plan adaptation measures.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001177827400002
来源期刊	NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291873
作者单位	IUSS PAVIA; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; University of Bristol; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); University of Innsbruck; University of Zagreb; Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute; Meteo France; Universite de Toulouse; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universidade de Lisboa; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP); Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Bern; University of Bern; University of Bern; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; Norwegian Meteorological Institute; Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Helmholtz Association; Research Center Julich; Universitat Kassel
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fosser, Giorgia,Gaetani, Marco,Kendon, Elizabeth J.,et al. Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections[J],2024,7(1).
APA	Fosser, Giorgia.,Gaetani, Marco.,Kendon, Elizabeth J..,Adinolfi, Marianna.,Ban, Nikolina.,...&Toelle, Merja H..(2024).Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections.NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE,7(1).
MLA	Fosser, Giorgia,et al."Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections".NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 7.1(2024).