气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods

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DOI	10.1029/2023GL105578
	Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
	Wood, Joanne L.; Harrison, Stephan; Wilson, Ryan; Emmer, Adam; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Cook, Simon J.; Glasser, Neil F.; Reynolds, John M.; Shugar, Dan H.; Yarleque, Christian
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
起始页码	51
结束页码	7
卷号	51 期号:7
英文摘要	As the world's glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long-standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900-2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology. Climate change is increasing glacier melt in high mountains and increasing the size and number of glacial lakes. Over time, these lakes may drain catastrophically to generate glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can devastate downstream communities and destroy valuable infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and hydroelectric power facilities. As a result, many risk assessments have been carried out to understand what the triggers of GLOFs might be, in order to better predict their occurrence. One of the main triggers has been assumed to be earthquakes, but this association has not been properly tested. In this paper, we use earthquake and GLOF data from the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes to test this and find that there is little association between earthquakes and GLOFs. We conclude by arguing that focus needs to be on other GLOF triggers, and earthquake activity should be used as a secondary - not primary - indicator in GLOF susceptibility studies. Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major risk concern, with earthquakes being commonly considered effective triggers in hazard assessments Of 59 earthquakes (1900-2021), the effects of which intersect lakes in the Tropical Andes, only one triggered GLOFs We suggest that earthquake activity should be used as a secondary - not primary - susceptibility indicator for GLOFs
英文关键词	climate change; GLOF; natural hazards
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001193628700001
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291546
作者单位	University of Exeter; University of Huddersfield; University of Graz; University of Dundee; Aberystwyth University; University of Calgary; Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wood, Joanne L.,Harrison, Stephan,Wilson, Ryan,et al. Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods[J],2024,51(7).
APA	Wood, Joanne L..,Harrison, Stephan.,Wilson, Ryan.,Emmer, Adam.,Kargel, Jeffrey S..,...&Yarleque, Christian.(2024).Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,51(7).
MLA	Wood, Joanne L.,et al."Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 51.7(2024).