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| DOI | 10.1029/2023GL105578 |
| Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0094-8276 |
| EISSN | 1944-8007 |
| 起始页码 | 51 |
| 结束页码 | 7 |
| 卷号 | 51期号:7 |
| 英文摘要 | As the world's glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long-standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900-2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology. Climate change is increasing glacier melt in high mountains and increasing the size and number of glacial lakes. Over time, these lakes may drain catastrophically to generate glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can devastate downstream communities and destroy valuable infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and hydroelectric power facilities. As a result, many risk assessments have been carried out to understand what the triggers of GLOFs might be, in order to better predict their occurrence. One of the main triggers has been assumed to be earthquakes, but this association has not been properly tested. In this paper, we use earthquake and GLOF data from the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes to test this and find that there is little association between earthquakes and GLOFs. We conclude by arguing that focus needs to be on other GLOF triggers, and earthquake activity should be used as a secondary - not primary - indicator in GLOF susceptibility studies. Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major risk concern, with earthquakes being commonly considered effective triggers in hazard assessments Of 59 earthquakes (1900-2021), the effects of which intersect lakes in the Tropical Andes, only one triggered GLOFs We suggest that earthquake activity should be used as a secondary - not primary - susceptibility indicator for GLOFs |
| 英文关键词 | climate change; GLOF; natural hazards |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001193628700001 |
| 来源期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291545 |
| 作者单位 | University of Exeter; University of Huddersfield; University of Graz; University of Dundee; Aberystwyth University; University of Calgary; Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods[J],2024,51(7). |
| APA | (2024).Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,51(7). |
| MLA | "Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 51.7(2024). |
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