气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

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DOI	10.1002/joc.8395
	Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate
	Zeeb, Aaron W.; Ashley, Walker S.; Haberlie, Alex M.; Gensini, Vittorio A.; Michaelis, Allison C.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
起始页码	44
结束页码	5
卷号	44 期号:5
英文摘要	This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high-resolution, convection-permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15-year epochs. Epochs include a historical end-of-20th-century period (1990-2005) and two end-of-21st-century (2085-2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%-6% of their annual and 5%-8% of their warm-season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south-central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end-of-the-21st-century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water-sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change. This research illustrates the precipitation contributions to the United States hydroclimate from rotating thunderstorms known as supercells and how those contributions will change in the 21st century. Results will assist water-sensitive industries, insurance markets and agriculture entities to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal changes. image
英文关键词	climate change; climate models; climatology; extreme events; hydrometeorology; precipitation; rainfall; supercells
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001173236000001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291537
作者单位	Northern Illinois University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zeeb, Aaron W.,Ashley, Walker S.,Haberlie, Alex M.,et al. Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate[J],2024,44(5).
APA	Zeeb, Aaron W.,Ashley, Walker S.,Haberlie, Alex M.,Gensini, Vittorio A.,&Michaelis, Allison C..(2024).Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,44(5).
MLA	Zeeb, Aaron W.,et al."Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 44.5(2024).