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| DOI | 10.1029/2023EA003356 |
| Future Increase in Lightning Around the South China Sea Under Climate Change | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2333-5084 |
| 起始页码 | 11 |
| 结束页码 | 6 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:6 |
| 英文摘要 | The impact of global warming on lightning flash rates remains relatively unknown. In this study, the South China Sea (SCS) and the surrounding areas within Southeast Asia were selected to examine the long-term trend and future projection of lightning activity based on the currently longest satellite-based lightning data set available and climate models. Our study revealed a reduction in the observed lightning flash rates around the SCS, with a linear trend of -0.11 fl km-2 yr-2 during 1996-2013. In contrast, the precipitation around the SCS exhibited an increasing trend and was negatively correlated with the local lightning flash rate. The sea surface temperature gradient over equatorial Pacific Ocean, latent heat flux over the equatorial Indian Ocean, local convective available potential energy, precipitation and aerosol changes collectively accounted for 82% of the variance in the lightning fluctuations over the SCS and Southeast Asia. Multiple linear regression proxies of lightning flash rates were constructed and applied to the climate models. The models indicated that lightning activity around the SCS is projected to intensify by 10% and 12% by the end of the 21st century under SSP245 and SSP370, respectively. The projection of future changes in lightning activity is uncertain owing to various factors, and different regions exhibit distinct trajectories. In this study, the focus was on the South China Sea (SCS) and Southeast Asia, and past variations in lightning activity was examined and used to predict future variations in lightning activity. Employing a multiple linear regression approach, we identified the large-scale thermodynamic drivers and local environmental factors that influence lightning activity around the SCS. The research findings indicated a reduction in lightning activity over the past few decades over the SCS and Southeast Asia region. The simulation results indicate that in the future under ongoing global warming, regional lightning activity will intensify. Lightning activity and precipitation show opposing regional trends around the South China Sea (SCS) Remote thermodynamic and local environmental factors both contribute to the variability in lightning around the SCS Under future climate change scenarios, lightning activity around the SCS is projected to gradually increase |
| 英文关键词 | total lightning flash rate; Southeast Asia; projected increase; CMIP6 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geology |
| WOS类目 | Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001235657800001 |
| 来源期刊 | EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291494 |
| 作者单位 | China Meteorological Administration; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS); Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Fudan University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Future Increase in Lightning Around the South China Sea Under Climate Change[J],2024,11(6). |
| APA | (2024).Future Increase in Lightning Around the South China Sea Under Climate Change.EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE,11(6). |
| MLA | "Future Increase in Lightning Around the South China Sea Under Climate Change".EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE 11.6(2024). |
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