气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effects of Environment Change Scenarios on the Potential Geographical Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/f15050830
	Effects of Environment Change Scenarios on the Potential Geographical Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. in China
	Feng, Jiajie; Cao, Yiwei; Manda, Teja; Hwarari, Delight; Chen, Jinhui; Yang, Liming
发表日期	2024
EISSN	1999-4907
起始页码	15
结束页码	5
卷号	15 期号:5
英文摘要	Changes in climate and environmental conditions have aggravated the severity and unpredictability of plant survival and growth. Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. is an economically important timber tree. Exploring its potential distribution and dynamic changes and identifying the leading environmental variables affecting it will help to adjust the planting range reasonably according to the habits and climate change, thus contributing to its survival and growth. Based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS tool, climate, soil, terrain, human activities, variable environment layers, and 395 C. lanceolata distribution points were used to simulate and analyze the geographical distribution characteristics of C. lanceolata in the current and future periods (the 2050s and 2070s) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. The results showed that C. lanceolata was suitable to grow in a subtropical monsoon climate with warm, humid, abundant rainfall and a relatively gentle topography. Additionally, using percent contribution, permutation importance, and the knife-cutting test, we noted that the annual precipitation (Bio12), human activities (Hfp), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), annual temperature range (Bio7), and elevation were the leading environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of C. lanceolata. Among them, it should be noted that the impact of human activities was negatively correlated with suitable habitat areas of C. lanceolata and led to the degeneration of suitable habitats and fragmentized distribution. In addition, predictions have shown that the areas of habitats under other scenarios will be characterized by an increasing and then decreasing trend by the 2050s and 2070s, except for the RCP2.6 scenario, under which the suitable habitats area of C. lanceolata will increase continuously. The core distributional shifts showed that the suitable habitats of C. lanceolata will gradually shift and migrate to high-latitude areas due to global warming. This study focused on the characteristics of suitable habitats of C. lanceolata under different climatic scenarios using more environmental factors and scenarios than before, aiming to provide a theoretical basis and guidance for the management and utilization of forest resources, the planning of suitable planting areas, and germplasm protection.
英文关键词	Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.; MaxEnt; geographical distribution; environmental factors; human activities; carbon emission level
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:001232301400001
来源期刊	FORESTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291460
作者单位	Nanjing Forestry University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Feng, Jiajie,Cao, Yiwei,Manda, Teja,et al. Effects of Environment Change Scenarios on the Potential Geographical Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. in China[J],2024,15(5).
APA	Feng, Jiajie,Cao, Yiwei,Manda, Teja,Hwarari, Delight,Chen, Jinhui,&Yang, Liming.(2024).Effects of Environment Change Scenarios on the Potential Geographical Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. in China.FORESTS,15(5).
MLA	Feng, Jiajie,et al."Effects of Environment Change Scenarios on the Potential Geographical Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. in China".FORESTS 15.5(2024).