气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5
	Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections
	Springer, Sebastian; Laio, Alessandro; Galfi, Vera Melinda; Lucarini, Valerio
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2397-3722
起始页码	7
结束页码	1
卷号	7 期号:1
英文摘要	Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and climate-related risks. We adopt an analysis pipeline inspired by Markov State Modelling and detect in an unsupervised manner the dominant winter mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere weather patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. The daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields are first classified in about 200 microstates. The weather dynamics are then represented on the basis of these microstates and the slowest decaying modes are identified from the spectral properties of the transition probability matrix. These modes are defined on the basis of the nonlinear dynamical processes of the system and not as tentative metastable states, as often done in Markov state analysis. When focusing on a shifting longitudinal window of 60 degrees, we find that the longitude-dependent estimate of the longest relaxation time is smaller where stronger baroclinic activity is found. In the Atlantic and Pacific sectors slow relaxation processes are mainly related to transitions between blocked regimes and zonal flow. We also find strong evidence of a dynamical regime associated with the simultaneous Atlantic-Pacific blocking. When the analysis is performed on a broader geographical region of the Atlantic sector, we discover that the slowest relaxation modes of the system are associated with transitions between dynamical regimes that resemble teleconnection patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation and weather regimes like the Scandinavian and Greenland blocking, yet have a much stronger dynamical foundation than classical methods based e.g. on EOF analysis. Our method clarifies that, as a result of the lack of a time-scale separation in the atmospheric variability of the mid-latitudes, there is no clear-cut way to represent the atmospheric dynamics in terms of few, well-defined modes of variability. The approach proposed here can be seamlessly applied across different regions of the globe for detecting regional modes of variability, and has a great potential for intercomparing climate models and for assessing the impact of climate change on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001227043000002
来源期刊	NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291441
作者单位	International School for Advanced Studies (SISSA); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP); Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; University of Leicester; University of Reading; University of Reading
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Springer, Sebastian,Laio, Alessandro,Galfi, Vera Melinda,et al. Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections[J],2024,7(1).
APA	Springer, Sebastian,Laio, Alessandro,Galfi, Vera Melinda,&Lucarini, Valerio.(2024).Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections.NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE,7(1).
MLA	Springer, Sebastian,et al."Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections".NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 7.1(2024).