气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/sciadv.adl4005
	Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods
	Jiang, Shijie; Tarasova, Larisa; Yu, Guo; Zscheischler, Jakob
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2375-2548
起始页码	10
结束页码	13
卷号	10 期号:13
英文摘要	Estimating river flood risks under climate change is challenging, largely due to the interacting and combined influences of various flood-generating drivers. However, a more detailed quantitative analysis of such compounding effects and the implications of their interplay remains underexplored on a large scale. Here, we use explainable machine learning to disentangle compounding effects between drivers and quantify their importance for different flood magnitudes across thousands of catchments worldwide. Our findings demonstrate the ubiquity of compounding effects in many floods. Their importance often increases with flood magnitude, but the strength of this increase varies on the basis of catchment conditions. Traditional flood analysis might underestimate extreme flood hazards in catchments where the contribution of compounding effects strongly varies with flood magnitude. Overall, our study highlights the need to carefully incorporate compounding effects in flood risk assessment to improve estimates of extreme floods.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001193309500001
来源期刊	SCIENCE ADVANCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291363
作者单位	Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ); Max Planck Society; Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ); Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); Desert Research Institute NSHE; Technische Universitat Dresden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang, Shijie,Tarasova, Larisa,Yu, Guo,et al. Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods[J],2024,10(13).
APA	Jiang, Shijie,Tarasova, Larisa,Yu, Guo,&Zscheischler, Jakob.(2024).Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods.SCIENCE ADVANCES,10(13).
MLA	Jiang, Shijie,et al."Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods".SCIENCE ADVANCES 10.13(2024).