气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying uncertainty sources in runoff change attribution based on the Budyko framework

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DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130790
	Quantifying uncertainty sources in runoff change attribution based on the Budyko framework
	Mo, Chongxun; Huang, Keke; Ruan, Yuli; Lai, Shufeng; Lei, Xingbi
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
起始页码	630
卷号	630
英文摘要	Quantifying the contributions of climate change (CC) and human activities (HAs), which are important drivers of the hydrological cycle, to runoff change by CC and HAs under uncertainty is crucial for water resource management, especially in karst basins. In this study, we adopted the climate elasticity method to assess the impacts of CC and HAs on runoff change in Chengbi River Basin during 1970-2019. Furthermore, the main sources of uncertainty (Budyko formula, breakpoint, and underlying surface characteristics) in runoff change attribution were quantified via analysis of variance method. The improved innovative trend analysis based on the Fisher optimal partition method was first used for the non-monotonic trend analysis. The groundwater storage change obtained through the abcd model was used to obtain the effective precipitation for the Budyko hypothesis. The results indicated that the runoff and precipitation exhibited an increasing trend in wet and normal years, whereas they exhibited a decreasing trend in dry years after 1995 compared with 1970-1994. Furthermore, potential evapotranspiration exhibited no significant trend. The climate elasticity method based on the Budyko formula was effective, and the Choudhury-Yang formula was found to be more suitable than the Fu formula for the basin. The impact of water storage change was not negligible, and water storage change needs to be considered in runoff change attribution. Effective precipitation played a dominant role in runoff change, with a mean contribution rate of 87.85%, whereas the mean contribution rates of potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface characteristics were 22.55% and -10.40%, respectively. The breakpoint was the main source of uncertainties in runoff change attribution and demonstrated the highest contribution to the uncertainties (85.93%). The simultaneous breakpoint of the runoff coefficient was suggested as a reference to determine the confident breakpoint of runoff. The findings of this study are expected to provide a scientific basis for water resource management and contribute to the development of the climate elasticity method.
英文关键词	Hydrological response; Climate change; Human activities; Climate elasticity method; Uncertainty quantification
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001176618200001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291150
作者单位	Guangxi University; Guangxi University; Guangxi University; Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mo, Chongxun,Huang, Keke,Ruan, Yuli,et al. Quantifying uncertainty sources in runoff change attribution based on the Budyko framework[J],2024,630.
APA	Mo, Chongxun,Huang, Keke,Ruan, Yuli,Lai, Shufeng,&Lei, Xingbi.(2024).Quantifying uncertainty sources in runoff change attribution based on the Budyko framework.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,630.
MLA	Mo, Chongxun,et al."Quantifying uncertainty sources in runoff change attribution based on the Budyko framework".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 630(2024).