气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future Projections of Precipitation Extremes for Greece Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/atmos15050601
	Future Projections of Precipitation Extremes for Greece Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations
	Zanis, Prodromos; Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Velikou, Kondylia; Akritidis, Dimitris; Kalisoras, Alkiviadis; Melas, Dimitris
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4433
起始页码	15
结束页码	5
卷号	15 期号:5
英文摘要	An assessment of the projected changes in precipitation extremes for the 21st century is presented here for Greece and its individual administrative regions. The analysis relies on an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations following various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The simulated changes in future annual total precipitation (PRTOT) under the examined scenarios are generally negative but statistically non-robust, except towards the end of the century (2071-2100) over high-altitude mountainous regions in Western Greece, Peloponnese, and Crete under RCP8.5. The pattern of change in the number of very heavy precipitation days (R20) is linked to the respective pattern of the PRTOT change with a statistically robust decrease of up to -5 days per year only over parts of the high-altitude mountainous regions in Western Greece, Peloponnese, and Crete for 2071-2100 under RCP8.5. Contrasting the future tendency for decrease in total precipitation and R20, the changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes show a tendency for intensification. However, these change patterns are non-robust for all periods and scenarios. Statistical significance is indicated for the highest 1-day precipitation amount in a year (Rx1day) for the administrative regions of Thessaly, Central Greece, Ionian Islands, and North Aegean under RCP8.5 in 2071-2100. The changes in the contribution of the wettest day per year to the annual total precipitation (RxTratio) are mainly positive but non-robust for most of Greece and all scenarios in the period 2021-2050, becoming more positive and robust in 2071-2100 for RCP8.5. This work highlights the necessity of taking into consideration high-resolution multi-model RCM estimates in future precipitation extremes with various scenarios, for assessing their potential impact on flood episodes and the strategic planning of structure resilience at national and regional level under the anticipated human-induced future climate change.
英文关键词	climate change; precipitation; indices of extremes; Regional Climate Models; Greece
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001232613800001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291139
作者单位	Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zanis, Prodromos,Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.,Velikou, Kondylia,et al. Future Projections of Precipitation Extremes for Greece Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations[J],2024,15(5).
APA	Zanis, Prodromos,Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.,Velikou, Kondylia,Akritidis, Dimitris,Kalisoras, Alkiviadis,&Melas, Dimitris.(2024).Future Projections of Precipitation Extremes for Greece Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations.ATMOSPHERE,15(5).
MLA	Zanis, Prodromos,et al."Future Projections of Precipitation Extremes for Greece Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations".ATMOSPHERE 15.5(2024).