气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/joc.8346
	A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan
	Ali, Zulfiqar; Hamed, Mohammad Magdy; Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan; Shahid, Shamsuddin
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
起始页码	44
结束页码	2
卷号	44 期号:2
英文摘要	The study used a hybrid approach to evaluate the performance of 20 global cli-mate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in reproducing 20 extreme temperature and precipitation indices over Pakistan. This study first analysed the future simula-tions of extremes and discarded the GCMs whose projections fell outside the 95% confidence interval. The remaining GCMs' performance was evaluated using the Kling Gupta Efficiency-based criteria. The changes in extreme cli-matic events in Pakistan were projected using the multi-model ensemble (MME) median of the selected GCMs for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) in two future periods, 2020-2059 and 2060-2099. Four GCMs' showed inconsistency in projecting future climatic extremes and were discarded ini-tially. The past performance of the remaining GCMs revealed EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, GFDL-ESM4, MRI-ESM2-0 and NOR-ESM2-MM to be effective in repro-ducing extreme indices for the historical period. The MME median of the selected GCMs showed a gradual increase in most of the temperature and pre-cipitation extreme indices in the future periods for all SSPs across the country. Specifically, it showed a higher increase in daily maximum temperature (TXx) by 4.5-5 degrees C, daily minimum temperature (TNn) by more than 4.5 degrees C, consecu-tive days with a temperature higher than the 95th percentile (WSDI) by >160 days, one-day maximum rainfall by 9-15 mm and days with precipitation above the 95th percentile by >50 mm in northern high-elevated areas during 2060-2099 for SSP585. Similarly, a higher increase in TXx by 4.5-5 degrees C, TNn by >4.5 degrees C, WSDI by 140 days and tropical nights by 40-60 days was also found in the western arid region during 2060-2099 for SSP585. The study highlights that northern high-elevated and western arid regions are at a higher risk of extreme temperatures and precipitation due to climate change.
英文关键词	climatic extremes; criteria-based framework; GCM selection; hybrid method; shared socioeconomic scenarios; uncertainty
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001144562300001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291081
作者单位	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; Islamia University of Bahawalpur; Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB); Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport; Al-Ayen University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ali, Zulfiqar,Hamed, Mohammad Magdy,Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan,et al. A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan[J],2024,44(2).
APA	Ali, Zulfiqar,Hamed, Mohammad Magdy,Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan,&Shahid, Shamsuddin.(2024).A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,44(2).
MLA	Ali, Zulfiqar,et al."A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 44.2(2024).