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| DOI | 10.1007/s10668-024-05004-7 |
| Spatiotemporal analysis of historic and future drought characteristics over a monsoon dominated humid region (kerala) in india | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 1387-585X |
| EISSN | 1573-2975 |
| 英文摘要 | Drought manifests as a devastating natural event and Kerala in India has experienced frequent drought in the recent past, despite being in a tropical monsoon climate region. This study primarily concentrates on the analysis and future projection of meteorological drought events in Kerala using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different timescales (3-month, 6-month, and 12-month). For the analysis of historic drought events, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) gridded rainfall data was used. Mann- Kendall and Sen's slope estimator was employed for evaluating the trend in the SPI time series and the persistence of the trend was analysed using the Hurst exponent. The linkage between meteorological drought and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region and the Indian Ocean was also studied. Results from this study indicated that a recent extreme drought event occurred in the year 2016 and is more affected in northern parts of Kerala. The results of trend analysis show that a statistically significant decreasing trend in SPI values was identified for more than 70% of the grid points. Correlation analysis of SPI values and SST anomalies indicate a weak lagged negative correlation with Nino 3.4 and a weak lagged positive correlation with the Indian Ocean region. Future projection of SPI values under two climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) reveals the occurrence of recurrent drought events in the near (2021-2050) as well as the far future periods (2051-2100). Moreover, a decreasing trend in SPI values was observed in the near future under SSP5-8.5 for 3-month and 12-month time scales. For SSP1-2.6, projections indicate that extreme drought years are observed in 2046 and 2089, and in the case of SSP5-8.5 scenario, extreme drought years are anticipated in 2034 and 2061. The results obtained from this study will help in identifying the regions that need more attention in drought mitigation and hence proper planning can be adopted in those areas. |
| 英文关键词 | Meteorological drought; Standardized precipitation index; GLDAS; Trend analysis; CMIP6; Kerala |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001220448400003 |
| 来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290964 |
| 作者单位 | National Institute of Technology (NIT System); National Institute of Technology Calicut |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Spatiotemporal analysis of historic and future drought characteristics over a monsoon dominated humid region (kerala) in india[J],2024. |
| APA | (2024).Spatiotemporal analysis of historic and future drought characteristics over a monsoon dominated humid region (kerala) in india.ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY. |
| MLA | "Spatiotemporal analysis of historic and future drought characteristics over a monsoon dominated humid region (kerala) in india".ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY (2024). |
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