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| DOI | 10.3389/frwa.2024.1385077 |
| Characteristics of extreme meteorological droughts over the Brazilian Pantanal throughout the 21st century | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2624-9375 |
| 起始页码 | 6 |
| 卷号 | 6 |
| 英文摘要 | The Brazilian Pantanal is a remarkable ecosystem, encompassing vital aspects such as fish, fruit, and grain production, greenhouse gas emission regulation, temperature and precipitation modulation, and groundwater recharge. However, 2019 and 2020 experienced prolonged and severe drought that profoundly impacted the Pantanal region. Although these impacts are still under review, their effects on wildlife, vegetation, and the local population are undeniable. To enhance our understanding of the magnitude and consequences of the 2019/2020 drought, the present study conducted a comprehensive evaluation of drought occurrences in the Pantanal biome. Utilizing two well-established drought indices, the standard precipitation index (SPI) and the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), we analyzed the available observational data provided by the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Additionally, we endeavored to project droughts throughout the 21st century, thereby facilitating the visualization of potential reoccurrences of hazardous events in the Pantanal area. Two regional climate model (RCM) ensembles, the Eta ensemble (E1) and CORDEX ensemble (E2), along with representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) were used to project the severity of droughts in the Brazilian Pantanal until 2098/2099. The findings indicate that the hydrological year of 2019/2020 was the driest on record in the Pantanal over the past 80 years. The E1 ensemble did not project such an extreme event, whereas the E2 ensemble forecasted extreme droughts before the 2040s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Using the SPEI, both ensembles showed similar results, with extreme droughts projected toward the end of the 21st century. Notably, the SPI demonstrated effectiveness in detecting short-term droughts, while the SPEI was more efficient for long-term assessments, projecting extreme drought events for the last two decades. The SPEI, employed with the Eta and CORDEX ensembles, can provide valuable insights into drought projections. Moreover, the potential recurrence of extreme droughts, characterized by significant below-average precipitation spanning vast areas throughout the hydrological year, poses a severe threat to the Pantanal biome in this century. |
| 英文关键词 | droughts; natural hazards; Brazilian biomes; environmental change; climate change |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001224235300001 |
| 来源期刊 | FRONTIERS IN WATER
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290934 |
| 作者单位 | Universidade Federal de Lavras; Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE); Sichuan University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Characteristics of extreme meteorological droughts over the Brazilian Pantanal throughout the 21st century[J],2024,6. |
| APA | (2024).Characteristics of extreme meteorological droughts over the Brazilian Pantanal throughout the 21st century.FRONTIERS IN WATER,6. |
| MLA | "Characteristics of extreme meteorological droughts over the Brazilian Pantanal throughout the 21st century".FRONTIERS IN WATER 6(2024). |
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