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| DOI | 10.1007/s11069-024-06510-7 |
| Future changes in intense tropical cyclone hazards in the Pearl River Delta region: an air-wave-ocean coupled model study | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0921-030X |
| EISSN | 1573-0840 |
| 起始页码 | 120 |
| 结束页码 | 8 |
| 卷号 | 120期号:8 |
| 英文摘要 | The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC)-caused coastal hazards due to its long and meandering shoreline and well-developed economy. With global warming expected to continue or worsen in the rest of the twenty-first century, this study examines the TC impact on the PRD coastal regions by reproducing three intense landfalling TCs, namely Vicente (2012), Hato (2017), Mangkhut (2018), using a sophisticated air-wave-ocean coupled model of high spatial resolution (1-km atmosphere and 500-m wave and ocean). The simulations are conducted using present-day reanalysis data and the same TCs occurring in a pseudo-global warming scenario projected for the 2090s. Results indicate that the coupled model accurately reproduces the air-wave-ocean status during the TC episodes. The 2090s thermodynamic status effectively increases the intensity of intense TCs, leading to more severe coastal hazards including gale, rainstorm, and storm surges and waves. On average, the maximum surface wind speed within 50-200 km to the right of the TC center can increase by 4.3 m/s (+22%). The 99th and the 99.9th percentile of accumulated rainfall will increase from 405 to 475 mm (+17.3%), and from 619 to 735 mm (+18.6%), respectively. The maximum significant wave height at the ocean is lifted by an average of 57 cm (+13.8%), and the coastline typically faces a 40-80 cm increase. The maximum storm surges are lifted by 30-80 cm over the open sea but aggravate much higher along the coastline, especially for narrowing estuaries. For Typhoon Vicente (2012), there is more than a 200 cm wave height increase observed both at open sea and along the coastline. In the 2090s context, a combination of mean sea level rise, storm surge, and wave height can reach more than 300 cm increase in total water level at certain hot-spot coastlines, without considering the superposition of spring tides. |
| 英文关键词 | Air-wave-ocean interactions; Tropical cyclone; Climate change; Coastal hazards |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001177858800001 |
| 来源期刊 | NATURAL HAZARDS
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290872 |
| 作者单位 | Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Future changes in intense tropical cyclone hazards in the Pearl River Delta region: an air-wave-ocean coupled model study[J],2024,120(8). |
| APA | (2024).Future changes in intense tropical cyclone hazards in the Pearl River Delta region: an air-wave-ocean coupled model study.NATURAL HAZARDS,120(8). |
| MLA | "Future changes in intense tropical cyclone hazards in the Pearl River Delta region: an air-wave-ocean coupled model study".NATURAL HAZARDS 120.8(2024). |
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