气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Simulating the economic and health impacts of synergistic emission reduction from accelerated energy transition in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area between 2020 and 2050

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123146
	Simulating the economic and health impacts of synergistic emission reduction from accelerated energy transition in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area between 2020 and 2050
	Jiang, Keyang; Zhou, Ying; Zhang, Zhihui; Chen, Shaoqing; Qiu, Rongliang
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0306-2619
EISSN	1872-9118
起始页码	364
卷号	364
英文摘要	The pace of energy transition plays a pivotal role in realizing cleaner air and combating climate change in the forthcoming decades. In this study, using a system -based model, we assessed and simulated the climatic, economic and health impacts of synergistic reduction of CO 2 and primary air pollutants (i.e., NO X , SO 2 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 ) under different paths of accelerated energy transition in Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) of China over 2017 - 2050. We show that fast decarbonization of the energy system targeting China ' s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal may lead to 90% (270 Mt) more reduction of GBA ' s CO 2 emissions between 2020 and 2050, compared to Business -As -Usual scenario, meanwhile all primary pollutants would be reduced by 70% - 80%, much higher than the scenarios prioritizing energy safety (higher reliance on all fossil fuels) or cleaner energy use (higher demand on natural gas). While the synergistic emission reduction effect of SO 2 , PM 2.5 and PM 10 may decrease after 2035, the decarbonization -oriented energy transition could still be an efficient tool for simultaneously reducing NO X and CO 2 by 2050. A reduction of 1 t CO 2 would be accompanied by reduction of 1.7-1.8 kg NO X in 2050, 78-132% higher than that in 2030. Fast -decarbonizing energy transition may result in 20% reduction of GBA's GDP growth rate after 2030, although 16-49% of the economic loss could be offset by the abated pollution -related health expenditures and premature deaths. This highlights the need for a more balanced strategy to accelerate energy transition, achieving fast decarbonization while also reduing the detrimental economic and health impacts of air pollutants.
英文关键词	Energy transition path; Synergistic emission reduction; Economic impact; Health benefit; Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay; Area
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
WOS类目	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical
WOS记录号	WOS:001225590500001
来源期刊	APPLIED ENERGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290799
作者单位	Sun Yat Sen University; Sun Yat Sen University; South China Agricultural University; Guangdong Laboratory for Lingnan Modern Agriculture
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang, Keyang,Zhou, Ying,Zhang, Zhihui,et al. Simulating the economic and health impacts of synergistic emission reduction from accelerated energy transition in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area between 2020 and 2050[J],2024,364.
APA	Jiang, Keyang,Zhou, Ying,Zhang, Zhihui,Chen, Shaoqing,&Qiu, Rongliang.(2024).Simulating the economic and health impacts of synergistic emission reduction from accelerated energy transition in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area between 2020 and 2050.APPLIED ENERGY,364.
MLA	Jiang, Keyang,et al."Simulating the economic and health impacts of synergistic emission reduction from accelerated energy transition in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area between 2020 and 2050".APPLIED ENERGY 364(2024).