气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Inter-Comparison of Precipitation Simulation and Future Projections Over China From an Ensemble of Multi-GCM Driven RCM Simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2023JD040166
	Inter-Comparison of Precipitation Simulation and Future Projections Over China From an Ensemble of Multi-GCM Driven RCM Simulations
	Tong, Yao; Gao, Xuejie; Xu, Ying; Cui, Xiulai; Giorgi, Filippo
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2169-897X
EISSN	2169-8996
起始页码	129
结束页码	7
卷号	129 期号:7
英文摘要	An analysis is presented of the precipitation bias and change signal in an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) (RegCM4) projections driven by multiple general circulation models (GCMs) over China. RegCM4 is driven by five different GCMs for the 120-year period 1979-2099 at 25 km grid spacing, under the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. We find that the GCMs and RegCM4 reproduce the general spatial pattern of precipitation over China in all four seasons, with RegCM4 providing greater spatial detail, especially over areas with complex terrain. The spatial patterns of precipitation bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4, characterized by an underestimation in the wetter regions, and an overestimation in the drier ones. Systematic increases of precipitation are projected in northern China, most pronounced in the Northwest basins, by both the GCMs and RegCM4 in all seasons except summer, when more mixed results are found. In addition, weak correlations of the projected change patterns are found in summer between the GCMs and nested RegCM4, indicating the greater role played by the representation of local convection processes during this monsoon season. The projections across the RegCM4 experiments show higher consistency and lower spread compared to the GCM ensemble, again indicating that the nested model physics significantly modulates the change signal deriving from the GCM boundary forcing. China is a vulnerable country to climate change due to its dense population, unbalanced social and economic development, shortage of water resources, and fragile ecosystems. How future precipitation will change over the region is of great concern for the general public and decision makers. This paper presents a first analysis of precipitation simulations from a set of five RCM (RegCM4) 21st century climate change projections, driven by coarse resolution general circulation models (GCMs) over China. We find that the spatial patterns of precipitation bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4, characterized by a precipitation underestimation in the wetter regions, and an overestimation in the drier ones. Systematic increases of precipitation are projected in north China by both the GCMs and RegCM4 in all seasons except summer, when, weak correlations of the projected change patterns are found between the GCMs and nested RegCM4, indicating the greater role of the representation of local convection processes during this monsoon season. The projections across the RegCM4 experiments show higher consistency and lower spread compared to the GCM ensemble, again indicating that the nested model physics significantly modulates the change signal deriving from the GCM boundary forcing. The spatial patterns of bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4 RegCM4 provides greater spatial detail of present day precipitation simulation compared to the GCMs and finer structures of future changes The change patterns across the RegCM4 projections show a high correlation, but not always between each pair of driving GCM and RegCM4
英文关键词	bias; change signal; precipitation; regional climate model; China
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001199868000001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290624
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; China Meteorological Administration; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tong, Yao,Gao, Xuejie,Xu, Ying,et al. Inter-Comparison of Precipitation Simulation and Future Projections Over China From an Ensemble of Multi-GCM Driven RCM Simulations[J],2024,129(7).
APA	Tong, Yao,Gao, Xuejie,Xu, Ying,Cui, Xiulai,&Giorgi, Filippo.(2024).Inter-Comparison of Precipitation Simulation and Future Projections Over China From an Ensemble of Multi-GCM Driven RCM Simulations.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,129(7).
MLA	Tong, Yao,et al."Inter-Comparison of Precipitation Simulation and Future Projections Over China From an Ensemble of Multi-GCM Driven RCM Simulations".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 129.7(2024).