气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe

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DOI	10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109887
	Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe
	Bracho-Mujica, Gennady; Roetter, Reimund P.; Haakana, Markus; Palosuo, Taru; Fronzek, Stefan; Asseng, Senthold; Yi, Chen; Ewert, Frank; Gaiser, Thomas; Kassie, Belay; Paff, Kirsten; Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Rodriguez, Alfredo; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Srivastava, Amit K.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Tao, Fulu; Semenov, Mikhail A.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0168-1923
EISSN	1873-2240
起始页码	346
卷号	346
英文摘要	To address the rising global food demand in a changing climate, yield gaps (YG), the difference between potential yields under irrigated (YP) or rainfed conditions (YWL) and actual farmers' yields (Ya), must be significantly narrowed whilst raising potential yields. Here, we examined the likely impacts of climate change (including changes in climatic variability) and improvements in agricultural technologies on crop yields and yield gaps. Eight rigorously tested crop simulation models were calibrated for wheat and maize and run at 10 different sites around the world. Simulations were performed to estimate YP, YWL and yields achievable under three locally defined technology packages: TP0 represents average farmer's practice, while TP1 and TP2 are increasingly advanced technologies. Simulations were run for the baseline (1981-2010) and twelve future climate scenarios for 2050, representing changes in the means of climate variables and in the variability of daily temperature and dry/wet spell durations. Our basic hypotheses were that (H1) mean climate changes combined with increased weather variability lead to more negative yield impacts than mean climate changes alone, and (H2) advanced technologies would serve as effective adaptations under future climatic conditions. We found that crop responses were dependent on site characteristics, climate scenarios and adopted technologies. Our findings did not support H1. As for H2, the improved technology packages increased wheat and maize yields at all sites, but yield gap reduction varied substantially among sites. Future studies should consider a broader range of climate scenarios and methods for analysing potential shifts in climate variability. Moreover, it is recommended to co -create and evaluate climate zone -specific climate -smart crop production technologies in interaction with a wide range of local stakeholders.
英文关键词	Adaptation; Climate change impacts; Crop modelling; Food security; Technology change; Yield gap
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001161267500001
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290503
作者单位	University of Gottingen; University of Gottingen; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke); Finnish Environment Institute; Technical University of Munich; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS; University of Bonn; Leibniz Zentrum fur Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF); United States Department of Agriculture (USDA); Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha; Universidad Politecnica de Madrid; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC); Rothamsted Research
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bracho-Mujica, Gennady,Roetter, Reimund P.,Haakana, Markus,et al. Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe[J],2024,346.
APA	Bracho-Mujica, Gennady.,Roetter, Reimund P..,Haakana, Markus.,Palosuo, Taru.,Fronzek, Stefan.,...&Semenov, Mikhail A..(2024).Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,346.
MLA	Bracho-Mujica, Gennady,et al."Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 346(2024).