气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drought propagation and its driving forces in central Asia under climate change

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DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131260
	Drought propagation and its driving forces in central Asia under climate change
	Zhu, Yanchao; Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Huang, Heqing; Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Sun, Kaiya; Song, Jingxia; Shi, Xiaorui; Lu, Xixi
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
起始页码	636
卷号	636
英文摘要	Drought propagation time (PT) and threshold (TR) play crucial roles in real-time monitoring of drought progression and severity under climate change, for which there is currently no unified method or standard for quantitative characterization. Central Asia (CA), a prototypical arid region, is frequently plagued by droughts that profoundly impact its ecology and socioeconomic framework, leaving a lack of comprehension about the transition from meteorological to soil moisture drought as for the complex impact of ground-atmosphere interaction. Therefore, this study revealed high-resolution PT and TR across CA based on precipitation and soil moisture datasets by employing a Bayesian causal framework for drought propagation modeling, in which the sliding window with the random forest method was integrated to investigate the dynamic changes and driving factors of drought propagation over recent decades. The conclusions drawn are as follows: (1) in the southeastern hilly and eastern plateau, a prolonged PT (i.e., longer than 100 days) was experienced during the extremities of the growing season, while most areas had a shorter mid-season PT (i.e., less than 40 days), in which the soil moisture drought intensity was positively correlated with longer PTs; (2) from 1948 to 2022, the central and western regions in CA generally displayed lower TR values than those in the northeast, seldom exceeding 30 mm, reflecting the regional precipitation gradient and the positive relationship between TR and severe soil moisture droughts; and (3) the increase in vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the decrease in aridity index (AI) for the reduced precipitation, and the considerable impact of vegetation transpiration on soil moisture consumption contributed to accelerated drought propagation. Overall, this study reveals the complex dynamics and mechanisms of drought propagation amid environmental changes, laying the foundation for innovative drought early warning systems and emergency management approaches in CA.
英文关键词	Central Asia; Meteorological drought; Soil moisture drought; Propagation time and trigger thresholds; Drought propagation drivers
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001238085200001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290315
作者单位	China University of Geosciences; Wuhan University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography, CAS; National University of Singapore
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Yanchao,Yang, Peng,Xia, Jun,et al. Drought propagation and its driving forces in central Asia under climate change[J],2024,636.
APA	Zhu, Yanchao.,Yang, Peng.,Xia, Jun.,Huang, Heqing.,Chen, Yaning.,...&Lu, Xixi.(2024).Drought propagation and its driving forces in central Asia under climate change.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,636.
MLA	Zhu, Yanchao,et al."Drought propagation and its driving forces in central Asia under climate change".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 636(2024).