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| DOI | 10.3390/w16101441 |
| Assessment of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Yellow River Basin, China from 2023 to 2100 | |
| Li, Hui; Mu, Hongxu; Jian, Shengqi; Li, Xinan | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2073-4441 |
| 起始页码 | 16 |
| 结束页码 | 10 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:10 |
| 英文摘要 | China's Yellow River Basin (YRB) is sensitive to climate change due to its delicate ecosystem and complex geography. Water scarcity, soil erosion, and desertification are major challenges. To mitigate the YRB's ecological difficulties, climate change must be predicted. Based on the analysis of the evolution features of hydro-meteorological elements, the CMIP6 climate model dataset with Delta downscaling and the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) is utilized to quantitatively explore the future variations in precipitation and temperature in the YRB. The following results are drawn: The spatial resolution of the CMIP6 climate model is less than 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees (i.e., about 55 km x 55 km), which is improved to 1 km x 1 km by the downscaling of Delta and has outstanding applicability to precipitation and temperature in the YRB. The most accurate models for monthly mean temperature are CESM2-WACCM, NorESM2-LM, and ACCESS-CM2, and for precipitation are ACCESS-ESM1-5, CESM2-WACCM, and IPSL-CM6A-LR. Between 2023 and 2100, annual precipitation increases by 6.89, 5.31, 7.02, and 10.18 mm/10a under the ssp126, ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 climate scenarios, respectively, with considerable variability in precipitation in the YRB. The annual temperature shows a significant upward trend, and the change rates under the different climate scenarios are, respectively, 0.1 degrees C/10a, 0.3 degrees C/10a, 0.5 degrees C/10a, and 0.7 degrees C/10a. The increase is positively correlated with emission intensity. Based on the EOF analysis, temperature and precipitation mainly exhibit a consistent regional trend from 2023 to 2100, with the primary modal EOF1 of precipitation for each scenario exhibiting a clear spatial distribution in the southeast-northwest. |
| 英文关键词 | climate model optimization; delta downscaling; EOF; precipitation; temperature |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001233299500001 |
| 来源期刊 | WATER
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290148 |
| 作者单位 | Nanyang Normal College; Zhengzhou University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Hui,Mu, Hongxu,Jian, Shengqi,et al. Assessment of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Yellow River Basin, China from 2023 to 2100[J],2024,16(10). |
| APA | Li, Hui,Mu, Hongxu,Jian, Shengqi,&Li, Xinan.(2024).Assessment of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Yellow River Basin, China from 2023 to 2100.WATER,16(10). |
| MLA | Li, Hui,et al."Assessment of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Yellow River Basin, China from 2023 to 2100".WATER 16.10(2024). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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