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| DOI | 10.1038/s41586-024-07147-z |
| Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0028-0836 |
| EISSN | 1476-4687 |
| 起始页码 | 627 |
| 结束页码 | 8005 |
| 卷号 | 627期号:8005 |
| 英文摘要 | Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input-output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 +/- 0.01 (SSP 245)-0.05 +/- 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030-2040 to 0.05 +/- 0.01-0.15 +/- 0.04 percentage points during 2050-2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6-4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37-45%), labour productivity loss (18-37%) and indirect loss (12-43%) under different shared socioeconomic pathways. Small- and medium-sized developing countries suffer disproportionately from higher health loss in South-Central Africa (2.1 to 4.0 times above global average) and labour productivity loss in West Africa and Southeast Asia (2.0-3.3 times above global average). The supply-chain disruption effects are much more widespread with strong hit to those manufacturing-heavy countries such as China and the USA, leading to soaring economic losses of 2.7 +/- 0.7% and 1.8 +/- 0.5%, respectively. A global high-resolution disaster footprint analytical model is developed to show substantial socioeconomic impacts from climatic change-driven heat stress through the global supply chain by 2060 due to direct and indirect effects on health and labour productivity. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001189689300001 |
| 来源期刊 | NATURE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290078 |
| 作者单位 | Tsinghua University; Zhejiang University; University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of London; King's College London; University of Cambridge; Beijing Normal University; Tsinghua University; University of Southern California; University of Waterloo; Beijing Institute of Technology; Southeast University - China; Peking University; University of London; University College London |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk[J],2024,627(8005). |
| APA | (2024).Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk.NATURE,627(8005). |
| MLA | "Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk".NATURE 627.8005(2024). |
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