气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory

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DOI	10.1007/s10661-024-12512-6
	Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory
	Naeem, Darakshan; Aziz, Rizwan; Awais, Muhammad; Ahmad, Sajid Rashid
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0167-6369
EISSN	1573-2959
起始页码	196
结束页码	4
卷号	196 期号:4
英文摘要	The fundamental consequences of global warming include an upsurge in the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes. This study pro-vides an insight into historical trends and projected changes in extreme temperatures on annual and seasonal scales across Balochistan, Pakistan. Historical trends are analyzed through the Mann Kendal test, and extreme temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) are evaluated using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for historical period (1991-2020) from the observational data and the two projected periods as near-future (2041-2070) and far-future (2071-2100) using a six-member bias-corrected ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) projections from the coordinate regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) based on the worst emission scenario (RCP8.5). The evaluation of historical temperature trends suggests that Tmax generally increase on yearly scale and give mixed signals on seasonal scale (winter, spring, summer, and autumn); however, Tmin trends gave mixed signals at both yearly and seasonal scale. Compared to the historical period, the return levels are generally expected to be higher for Tmax and Tmin during the both projection periods in the order as far-future > near-future > historical on yearly and seasonal basis; however, the changes in Tmin are more evident. Station-averaged anomalies of + 1.9 degrees C and + 3.6 degrees C were estimated in 100-year return levels for yearly Tmax for near-future and far-future, respectively, while the anomalies in Tmin were found to be + 3.5 degrees C and + 4.8 degrees C which suggest the intensified heatwaves but milder colder extreme in future. The findings provide guidance on improved quantification of changing frequencies and severity in temperature extremes and the associated impacts
英文关键词	Extreme temperature; Climate change; CORDEX; Extreme value analyses
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001196528300001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290022
作者单位	University of Punjab
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Naeem, Darakshan,Aziz, Rizwan,Awais, Muhammad,et al. Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory[J],2024,196(4).
APA	Naeem, Darakshan,Aziz, Rizwan,Awais, Muhammad,&Ahmad, Sajid Rashid.(2024).Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,196(4).
MLA	Naeem, Darakshan,et al."Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 196.4(2024).