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| DOI | 10.1007/s10661-024-12512-6 |
| Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0167-6369 |
| EISSN | 1573-2959 |
| 起始页码 | 196 |
| 结束页码 | 4 |
| 卷号 | 196期号:4 |
| 英文摘要 | The fundamental consequences of global warming include an upsurge in the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes. This study pro-vides an insight into historical trends and projected changes in extreme temperatures on annual and seasonal scales across Balochistan, Pakistan. Historical trends are analyzed through the Mann Kendal test, and extreme temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) are evaluated using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for historical period (1991-2020) from the observational data and the two projected periods as near-future (2041-2070) and far-future (2071-2100) using a six-member bias-corrected ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) projections from the coordinate regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) based on the worst emission scenario (RCP8.5). The evaluation of historical temperature trends suggests that Tmax generally increase on yearly scale and give mixed signals on seasonal scale (winter, spring, summer, and autumn); however, Tmin trends gave mixed signals at both yearly and seasonal scale. Compared to the historical period, the return levels are generally expected to be higher for Tmax and Tmin during the both projection periods in the order as far-future > near-future > historical on yearly and seasonal basis; however, the changes in Tmin are more evident. Station-averaged anomalies of + 1.9 degrees C and + 3.6 degrees C were estimated in 100-year return levels for yearly Tmax for near-future and far-future, respectively, while the anomalies in Tmin were found to be + 3.5 degrees C and + 4.8 degrees C which suggest the intensified heatwaves but milder colder extreme in future. The findings provide guidance on improved quantification of changing frequencies and severity in temperature extremes and the associated impacts |
| 英文关键词 | Extreme temperature; Climate change; CORDEX; Extreme value analyses |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001196528300001 |
| 来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290021 |
| 作者单位 | University of Punjab |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory[J],2024,196(4). |
| APA | (2024).Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,196(4). |
| MLA | "Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 196.4(2024). |
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