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| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2309087121 |
| Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0027-8424 |
| EISSN | 1091-6490 |
| 起始页码 | 121 |
| 结束页码 | 15 |
| 卷号 | 121期号:15 |
| 英文摘要 | Africa carries a disproportionately high share of the global malaria burden, accounting for 94% of malaria cases and deaths worldwide in 2019. It is also a politically unstable region and the most vulnerable continent to climate change in recent decades. Knowledge about the modifying impacts of violent conflict on climate-malaria relationships remains limited. Here, we quantify the associations between violent conflict, climate variability, and malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa using health surveys from 128,326 individuals, historical climate data, and 17,429 recorded violent conflicts from 2006 to 2017. We observe that spatial spillovers of violent conflict (SSVCs) have spatially distant effects on malaria risk. Malaria risk induced by SSVCs within 50 to 100 km from the households gradually increases from 0.1% (not significant, P>0.05) to 6.5% (95% CI: 0 to 13.0%). SSVCs significantly promote malaria risk within the average 20.1 to 26.9 degrees C range. At the 12-mo mean temperature of 22.5 degrees C, conflict deaths have the largest impact on malaria risk, with an approximately 5.8% increase (95% CI: 1.0 to 11.0%). Additionally, a pronounced association between SSVCs and malaria risk exists in the regions with 9.2 wet days per month. The results reveal that SSVCs increase population exposure to harsh environments, amplifying the effect of warm temperature and persistent precipitation on malaria transmission. Violent conflict therefore poses a substantial barrier to mosquito control and malaria elimination efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings support effective targeting of treatment programs and vector control activities in conflict-affected regions with a high malaria risk. |
| 英文关键词 | violent conflict; malaria risk; climate change; sub-Saharan Africa |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001207680000003 |
| 来源期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289999 |
| 作者单位 | Beijing Normal University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa[J],2024,121(15). |
| APA | (2024).Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,121(15). |
| MLA | "Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 121.15(2024). |
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