气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hailfall in a Possible Future Climate Using a Pseudo-Global Warming Approach: Hail Characteristics and Mesoscale Influences

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0181.1
	Hailfall in a Possible Future Climate Using a Pseudo-Global Warming Approach: Hail Characteristics and Mesoscale Influences
	Mallinson, Holly; Lasher-trapp, Sonia; Trapp, Jeff; Woods, Matthew; Orendorfa, Sophie
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	37
结束页码	2
卷号	37 期号:2
英文摘要	Severe convective storms (SCS) and their associated hazards present significant societal risk. Understanding of how these hazards, such as hailfall, may change due to anthropogenic climate change is in its infancy. Previous methods used to investigate possible changes in SCS and their hail used climate model output and were limited by their coarse spatiotemporal resolution and less detailed representations of hail. This study instead uses an event-level pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach to simulate seven different hailstorms in their historical environments, and again in five differ-ent end-of-century PGW environments obtained from the worst-case scenario increases in CO2 of five different CMIP5 members. Changes in large-scale environmental parameters were generally found to be consistent with prior studies, show -ing mostly increases in CAPE, CIN, and precipitable water, with minor changes in vertical wind shear. Nearly all simulated events had moderately stronger updrafts in the PGW environments. Only cold-season events showed an increase in hail sizes both within the storms and at the surface, whereas warm-season events exhibited a decrease in hail sizes at the surface and aloft. Changes in the event-total hailfall area at the ground also showed a seasonal trend, with increases in cold-season events and decreases in warm-season events. Melting depths increased for all PGW environments, and these increases likely contributed to greater rainfall area for warm-season events, where an increase in smaller hail aloft would be more prone to melting. The differences in PGW simulation hail sizes in cold-season and warm-season events found here are likely related to differences in microphysical processes and warrant future study.
英文关键词	Climate change; Hail; Mesoscale processes; Storm environments; Mesoscale models
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001131624600001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289990
作者单位	University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mallinson, Holly,Lasher-trapp, Sonia,Trapp, Jeff,et al. Hailfall in a Possible Future Climate Using a Pseudo-Global Warming Approach: Hail Characteristics and Mesoscale Influences[J],2024,37(2).
APA	Mallinson, Holly,Lasher-trapp, Sonia,Trapp, Jeff,Woods, Matthew,&Orendorfa, Sophie.(2024).Hailfall in a Possible Future Climate Using a Pseudo-Global Warming Approach: Hail Characteristics and Mesoscale Influences.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(2).
MLA	Mallinson, Holly,et al."Hailfall in a Possible Future Climate Using a Pseudo-Global Warming Approach: Hail Characteristics and Mesoscale Influences".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.2(2024).