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| Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2542-5196 |
| 起始页码 | 8 |
| 结束页码 | 2 |
| 卷号 | 8期号:2 |
| 英文摘要 | Background Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or nonexternal causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. Findings The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0 center dot 96 to 1 center dot 11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0 center dot 002% to 0 center dot 06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. Interpretation A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates. Copyright (c) 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001181734300001 |
| 来源期刊 | LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289856 |
| 作者单位 | Nagasaki University; University of London; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Centro de Investigacion y Desarrollo Pascual Vila (CID-CSIC); CSIC - Instituto de Diagnostico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA); Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; Yale University; Czech Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Czech University of Life Sciences Prague; University of Oulu; University of Oulu; University of Oulu; University of Helsinki; ISGlobal; University of Tokyo; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; CIBER - Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red; CIBERESP; University of Bern; University of Bern; Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention; National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention; Queensland University of Technology (QUT); University of Ottawa; Health Canada; University of Valencia; Instituto Nacional de Saude Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Universidade... |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study[J],2024,8(2). |
| APA | (2024).Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study.LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH,8(2). |
| MLA | "Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study".LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH 8.2(2024). |
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