气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): What Aspect of Model Performance is the Most Relevant to Skillful Future Projection on a Regional Scale?

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0312.1
	What Aspect of Model Performance is the Most Relevant to Skillful Future Projection on a Regional Scale?
	Li, Tong; Zhang, Xuebin; Jiang, Zhihong
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	37
结束页码	5
卷号	37 期号:5
英文摘要	Weighting models according to their performance has been used to produce multimodel climate change projections. But the added value of model weighting for future projection is not always examined. Here we apply an imperfect model framework to evaluate the added value of model weighting in projecting summer temperature changes over China. Members of large-ensemble simulations by three climate models of different climate sensitivities are used as pseudo -observations for the past and the future. Performance of the models participating in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated against the pseudo-observations based on simulated historical climatology and trends in global, regional, and local temperatures to determine the model weights for future projection. The weighted projections are then compared with the pseudo-observations in the future period. We find that regional trend as a metric of model performance yields generally better skill for future projection, while past climatology as performance metric does not lead to a significant improvement to projection. Trend at the grid-box scale is also not a good performance indicator as small-scale trend is highly uncertain. For the model weighting to be effective, the metric for evaluating the model's performance must be relatable to future changes, with the response signal separable from internal variability. Projected summer warming based on model weighting is similar to that of unweighted projection but the 5th-95th-percentile uncertainty range of the weighted projection is 38% smaller with the reduction mainly in the upper bound, with the largest reduction appearing in southeast China.
英文关键词	KEYWORDS: Climate change; Uncertainty; Ensembles; Climate models; Trends
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001157521700001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289676
作者单位	Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; University of Victoria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Tong,Zhang, Xuebin,Jiang, Zhihong. What Aspect of Model Performance is the Most Relevant to Skillful Future Projection on a Regional Scale?[J],2024,37(5).
APA	Li, Tong,Zhang, Xuebin,&Jiang, Zhihong.(2024).What Aspect of Model Performance is the Most Relevant to Skillful Future Projection on a Regional Scale?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(5).
MLA	Li, Tong,et al."What Aspect of Model Performance is the Most Relevant to Skillful Future Projection on a Regional Scale?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.5(2024).