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| DOI | 10.1186/s12862-024-02234-1 |
| Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2730-7182 |
| 起始页码 | 24 |
| 结束页码 | 1 |
| 卷号 | 24期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner&Buhrer) Nickle is a global quarantine pest that causes devastating mortality in pine species. The rapid and uncontrollable parasitic spread of this organism results in substantial economic losses to pine forests annually. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and GIS software ArcGIS10.8 to predict the distribution of B. xylophilus based on collected distribution points and 19 environmental variables (with a correlation coefficient of|R| > 0.8) for the contemporary period (1970-2000), 2041-2060 (2050s), 2061-2080 (2070s), and 2081-2100 (2090s) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the key environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of B. xylophilus and suitable distribution areas. Our results indicate that in current prediction maps B. xylophilus had potential suitable habitats in all continents except Antarctica, with East Asia being the region with the most highly suitable areas and the most serious epidemic area currently. Precipitation of the warmest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest month, and maximum temperature of the warmest month were identified as key environmental variables that determine the distribution of B. xylophilus. Under future climatic conditions, the potential geographic distribution of B. xylophilus will expand relative to current conditions. In particular, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2081-2100, suitable areas will expand to higher latitudes, and there will be significant changes in suitable areas in Europe, East Asia, and North America. These findings are crucial for future prevention and control management and monitoring. |
| 英文关键词 | Bursaphelenchu xylophilus; Climate change; Pine wilt disease; MaxEnt; Distribution |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology ; Genetics & Heredity |
| WOS类目 | Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology ; Genetics & Heredity |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001205162700002 |
| 来源期刊 | BMC ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289592 |
| 作者单位 | Guizhou University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors[J],2024,24(1). |
| APA | (2024).Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors.BMC ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,24(1). |
| MLA | "Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors".BMC ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 24.1(2024). |
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