气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): By-degree Health and Economic Impacts of Lyme Disease, Eastern and Midwestern United States

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10393-024-01676-9
	By-degree Health and Economic Impacts of Lyme Disease, Eastern and Midwestern United States
	Yang, Haisheng; Gould, Caitlin A.; Jones, Russ; St Juliana, Alexis; Sarofim, Marcus; Rissing, Matt; Hahn, Micah B.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1612-9202
EISSN	1612-9210
起始页码	21
结束页码	1
卷号	21 期号:1
英文摘要	Lyme disease (LD) is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States (U.S.). This paper assesses how climate change may influence LD incidence in the eastern and upper Midwestern U.S. and the associated economic burden. We estimated future Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability and LD incidence with a by-degree approach using variables from an ensemble of multiple climate models. We then applied estimates for present-day and projected habitat suitability for I. scapularis, present-day presence of Borrelia burgdorferi, and projected climatological variables to model reported LD incidence at the county level among adults, children, and the total population. Finally, we applied an estimate of healthcare expenses to project economic impacts. We show an overall increase in LD cases with regional variation. We estimate an increase in incidence in New England and the upper Midwestern U.S. and a concurrent decrease in incidence in Virginia and North Carolina. At 3 degrees C of national warming from the 1986-2015 baseline climate, we project approximately 55,000 LD cases, a 38-percent increase from present-day estimates. At 6 degrees C of warming, our most extreme scenario, we project approximately 92,000 LD cases in the region, an increase of 145 percent relative to current levels. Annual LD-related healthcare expenses at 3 degrees C of warming are estimated to be $236 million (2021 dollars), approximately 38 percent greater than present-day. These results may inform decision-makers tasked with addressing climate risks, the public, and healthcare professionals preparing for treatment and prevention of LD.
英文关键词	Lyme disease; Vector-borne disease; Ticks; Climate change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001181979300001
来源期刊	ECOHEALTH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289517
作者单位	ABT Associates; United States Environmental Protection Agency; University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Anchorage
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Haisheng,Gould, Caitlin A.,Jones, Russ,et al. By-degree Health and Economic Impacts of Lyme Disease, Eastern and Midwestern United States[J],2024,21(1).
APA	Yang, Haisheng.,Gould, Caitlin A..,Jones, Russ.,St Juliana, Alexis.,Sarofim, Marcus.,...&Hahn, Micah B..(2024).By-degree Health and Economic Impacts of Lyme Disease, Eastern and Midwestern United States.ECOHEALTH,21(1).
MLA	Yang, Haisheng,et al."By-degree Health and Economic Impacts of Lyme Disease, Eastern and Midwestern United States".ECOHEALTH 21.1(2024).