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| DOI | 10.2166/wcc.2024.607 |
| The prediction of precipitation changes in the Aji-Chay watershed using CMIP6 models and the wavelet neural network | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2040-2244 |
| EISSN | 2408-9354 |
| 起始页码 | 15 |
| 结束页码 | 5 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:5 |
| 英文摘要 | Greenhouse gases affect climate system disturbances. This research employs sixth generation CMIP6 models in the SSP5.85 scenario and extends the use of the neural wavelet network to predict precipitation variations for the future (2025-2065). Kendall's trend test is used to assess changes in precipitation trends for observed and projected periods. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) validates models under SSP5.85 by comparing observed precipitation with model predictions. A multi-layer perceptron neural network assesses climate change's impact on future precipitation. Findings indicate future precipitation is projected to fluctuate from -0.146 to over -2.127 mm compared to the baseline period. The observed period showed a significant 3.37% monthly precipitation decrease within the watershed. The CanESM5 model predicts a 3.916 reduction in precipitation with 95% confidence, while INM-CM4-8 and MRI-ESM2-0 models are less certain. The minor difference between CanESM5's predicted (-5.91) and observed (-5.05) precipitation suggests a slight variance. On the other hand, the wavelet neural network (WNN) model predicts that precipitation in this region will increase in the future. In general, this study predicts a decrease in precipitation for the Aji-Chay watershed in Iran over the next decade, could lead to serious issues like lower crop yields, rising food prices, and even droughts. HIGHLIGHT center dot This research stands as a beacon of progress in climate science. Through its use of cutting-edge modeling, innovative methodology, statistical rigor, and policy-relevant conclusions, it thoroughly investigates the critical issue of climate change's impact on rainfall and its broader implications for water resources. |
| 英文关键词 | ANOVA; CanESM5; neural wavelet network; the Aji-Chay watershed |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001198985000001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289505 |
| 作者单位 | University of Isfahan; Islamic Azad University; Islamic Azad University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . The prediction of precipitation changes in the Aji-Chay watershed using CMIP6 models and the wavelet neural network[J],2024,15(5). |
| APA | (2024).The prediction of precipitation changes in the Aji-Chay watershed using CMIP6 models and the wavelet neural network.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,15(5). |
| MLA | "The prediction of precipitation changes in the Aji-Chay watershed using CMIP6 models and the wavelet neural network".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 15.5(2024). |
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