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| DOI | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109928 |
| On the sensitivity of fire-weather climate projections to empirical fire models | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0168-1923 |
| EISSN | 1873-2240 |
| 起始页码 | 348 |
| 卷号 | 348 |
| 英文摘要 | Empirical fire models, designed for public messaging of fire danger, prescribed-burning decision making, resource management, and fire-spread-rate prediction, are often used in climate studies to investigate potential changes in recent and future wildfires and prescribed burning opportunities. Prior studies have shown that some of these models are more accurate than others, which prompts the question: How sensitive are fire-climate projections to model choice? We consider the potential sensitivity of climate projections to one element common to these models: their functions of atmospheric temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH), termed thermodynamic functions. Thermodynamic functions in 16 models, including operational fire rate-of-spread models and popular fire-weather indices, are presented and compared graphically over broad ranges of T (0-50 degree celsius) and RH (5-75 %). Substantial variations in thermodynamic function between models are found across this parameter space, with one model not quite doubling and others varying by more than 30 times. Substantial variations in the relative importance of T and RH are also found between models, with one model up to seven times more sensitive to T than RH, and other models about six times more sensitive to RH than T. Three hypothetical climate change scenarios were applied to the 16 thermodynamic functions, yielding projections ranging from minimal change to a more than 50 % increase in value. Non-trivial differences in projections were also found between models designed for similar fuels. This projection variability highlights the need for careful model consideration in climate studies, and the importance of acknowledging projection sensitivity to model choice, especially as further developments in models are likely. |
| 英文关键词 | Fire-weather; Fire-spread models; Fire-weather indices; Climate Change |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001197970900001 |
| 来源期刊 | AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289428 |
| 作者单位 | Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . On the sensitivity of fire-weather climate projections to empirical fire models[J],2024,348. |
| APA | (2024).On the sensitivity of fire-weather climate projections to empirical fire models.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,348. |
| MLA | "On the sensitivity of fire-weather climate projections to empirical fire models".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 348(2024). |
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