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| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130685 |
| Time-varying parameters from the same period in previous years to improve runoff forecasting | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0022-1694 |
| EISSN | 1879-2707 |
| 起始页码 | 631 |
| 卷号 | 631 |
| 英文摘要 | The time-varying parameter functional (TVPF) method has shown promise in improving runoff forecasting under climate change and human activities. However, it has three notable limitations: data availability, increased model complexity, and the inability to update with newly measured data. To address these challenges, this study proposes an improved runoff forecasting method that relies solely on time-varying parameters from the same period in previous years. The proposed method comprises four steps: (1) identification of time-varying parameters from historical observations; (2) estimation of the current-year parameters by averaging the time-varying parameters from the same period in previous years; (3) runoff forecasts using the estimated current-year parameters; (4) continuous identification and estimation of parameters with newly measured data for each year, enabling a rolling forecast of runoff. The proposed method is compared with both the constant parameter method and TVPF method, using the Xun River and Zuo River basins as case studies. The results reveal that (1) parameters from the same period in the previous three years yield the best runoff forecasts in the Xun River basin, while parameters from the same period in the previous five years produce the best runoff forecasts in the Zuo River basin; (2) the proposed method significantly improves the water balance index (WBI) compared to the TVPF method, providing either superior or comparable performance in structural risk minimization (SRM) evaluation. Overall, this study provides an approach to forecast runoff in a changing environment that reduces data requirements, simplifies model complexity, and improves WBI performance. |
| 英文关键词 | Hydrologic modeling; Time-varying parameters; Runoff forecasting |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001184451100001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289237 |
| 作者单位 | Wuhan University; Wuhan University; Wuhan University; Wuhan University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Time-varying parameters from the same period in previous years to improve runoff forecasting[J],2024,631. |
| APA | (2024).Time-varying parameters from the same period in previous years to improve runoff forecasting.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,631. |
| MLA | "Time-varying parameters from the same period in previous years to improve runoff forecasting".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 631(2024). |
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